The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, TX. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Baylor is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -675. The total is set at 136 points.
Here are my TCU vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for January 19, 2025.
TCU vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Baylor -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
My TCU vs Baylor best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs Baylor Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 136 -108 / -112 | +490 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 136 -108 / -112 | -675 |
- TCU vs Baylor spread: Baylor -12.5
- TCU vs Baylor over/under: 136 points
- TCU vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -675, TCU +490
- TCU vs Baylor best bet: Baylor -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
Spread
I'm taking the Bears on the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Baylor -12.5 (Play to -13.5)
TCU vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Waco is the site of a Sunday Big 12 battle between two teams right in the thick of the conference standings. Baylor comes in off a loss at Arizona and will look to get right at home. Meanwhile, TCU fell to Utah in Fort Worth and now looks to score its first road win of the season.
Baylor ranks as the biggest “paper tiger” in Haslametrics, a metric that measures a team’s ability to play up to the level of its competition. The Bears play far better against inferior competition. In Big 12 play, Baylor has pounded Cincy by 20 and Utah by 25 – both games came in Waco.
TCU very much falls in the “inferior competition” category.
The Bears could still be light on depth with Jalen Celestine and Langston Love on the shelf. Head coach Scott Drew has essentially played a six-man rotation in the past few games.
With the pace Baylor plays at, this shouldn’t be a major issue, and Baylor’s top six is very talented.
The offensive glass will be a huge edge for the Bears in this one, with Norchad Omier and John Ojianwuna acting as a two-man wrecking crew on the boards.
Baylor’s attack is balanced, but it revolves around the pick-and-roll, with an emphasis on the roll. Omier and Ojianwuna are two of the best ball-screen partners in the country by efficiency.
TCU’s defense needs to show up for it to have a chance, but unfortunately, the Frogs are due for some negative defensive shooting regression. The Frogs rank 283rd in 3-point attempt rate allowed but 20th in 3-point percentage. Plus, Baylor has plenty of shooting.
Baylor’s talent edge is significant. Freshman star VJ Edgecombe hasn’t been amazing this year, but the potential is clearly there, and he’s an offensive weapon. Robert Wright III is getting better every day with big-time backcourt minutes, and Omier, Jeremy Roach and Jayden Nunn are the steady vets holding the whole operation together.
TCU is treading water in Big 12 play, but just barely. The Frogs have shown an inability to win on the road, sitting at 0-3 on the year (1-2 against the spread).
On offense, TCU needs to get to the rim. Per CBB Analytics, the Frogs rank 33rd in field goal attempt rate near the cup, and they also settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers. They have a severe lack of outside shooting, but on the plus side, they don’t turn it over.
Baylor’s zone will be a huge challenge for TCU. The Frogs have scored just 0.724 PPP against zone this season (Synergy), good for 346th in the country. Baylor defends the very thing TCU wants to do; per CBB Analytics, the Bears rank fifth in field goal attempt rate allowed at the rim this year.
And if TCU starts settling/forcing outside shots, it won’t get many second chances with its dearth of offensive rebounding ability.
Baylor should take this game in stride and stay within an arm’s length of the top dogs in the Big 12. TCU will slide closer to the bottom of the standings, where it'll likely end up in March.
