The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Houston is favored by 18.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4500. The total is set at 128.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for January 6, 2025.
TCU vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Under 128.5 (Play to 125)
My TCU vs Houston best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs Houston Odds, Spread
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -108 | 128.5 -108 / -112 | +1700 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -112 | 128.5 -108 / -112 | -4500 |
- TCU vs Houston spread: Houston -18.5
- TCU vs Houston over/under: 128.5 points
- TCU vs Houston moneyline: Houston -4500, TCU +1700
- TCU vs Houston best bet: Under 128.5 (Play to 125)
My TCU vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Despite Frankie Collins being done for the season with a broken foot, TCU has preformed admirably to start Big 12 play, covering on the road against Arizona and holding serve against Kansas State at home.
But now Jamie Dixon's unit has a major test, and it surely won't pass without Collins.
Houston's defense hasn't given up more than 55 points in a single game it's won this season, and its average margin of victory against power-conference opponents is sitting around 18 points. This spread is right on the money, so I'm going to target the under instead.
These are two slow-paced teams (Houston ranks nearly last in the country in adjusted tempo), and we already know TCU is missing its best player.
Plus, TCU generates scoring opportunities off steals (26th in potential points off steals, via Haslametrics) and offensive rebounds (36th in second-chance scoring). That's not going to work successfully against a team like Houston that doesn't turn the basketball over easily and is extremely physical on the glass.
On top of that, the Horned Frogs are shooting a brutal 65% from the free throw line, one of the worst marks in the nation.
On the other end of the floor, it's not as if Houston is going to run all over TCU's defense. The Horned Frogs rank 25th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and as I mentioned before, the Cougars will play a slow-paced, half-court game, especially in their home building, where they can take total control of the pace.
I love the under, as I think Houston wins in the 72-50 range.
