The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, TX. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Texas Tech is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1100. The total is set at 137 points.
Here are my TCU vs. Texas Tech predictions and college basketball picks for January 29, 2025.
TCU vs Texas Tech Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean TCU +14.5
My TCU vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Horned Frogs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
TCU vs Texas Tech Odds, Lines, Pick
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -108 | 136.5 -112o / -108u | +750 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -112 | 136.5 -112o / -108u | -1200 |
- TCU vs Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -12.5
- TCU vs Texas Tech over/under: 136.5 points
- TCU vs Texas Tech moneyline: Texas Tech -1200, TCU +750
- TCU vs Texas Tech best bet: PASS | Lean TCU +14.5
My TCU vs Texas Tech College Basketball Betting Preview
Are the Frogs catching too many points on Wednesday?
I think Texas Tech is a tad overvalued after four straight wins. The Red Raiders are 6-2 in conference play. Still, opponents have shot 28% from 3 (lowest in the Big 12, per KenPom), which feels unsustainable when you consider opponents have also shot 54% from the interior (fourth-highest in the Big 12, per KenPom).
Meanwhile, TCU is in a decent bounce-back spot after double-digit losses to Kansas and UCF. This is the Frogs' second two-game losing streak this year, and they bounced back with a home win over Xavier the last time they had one.
The key to stopping Texas Tech is to stop the Red Raiders’ ball-screen creation. For all their flaws, Jamie Dixon’s squad has been excellent in ball-screen coverage at the point of attack. The Frogs are aggressive in their hard hedges, leveraging the versatile 6-foot-11 Ernest Udeh Jr. to attack opposing pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
However, aggressive ball-screen coverage leaves you vulnerable to crafty rim-rollers and pick-and-poppers. Texas Tech is among the nation’s best teams in that regard (nine roll-man points per game, first nationally, at 1.15 PPP, per Synergy), behind JT Toppin and Federiko Federiko.
Meanwhile, I’m uncertain how TCU scores. The Frogs are uber-reliant on transition creation, which could be tough against Texas Tech’s rock-solid transition-denial defense. The Frogs are OK at catch-and-shoot creation in the half-court but aren’t so good in the spacing and shot-making departments.
TCU will ultimately live at the rim, but Texas Tech is a good rim-denial defense. More importantly, the Red Raiders are an excellent two-way rebounding team, which means they can keep TCU off the offensive glass while dominating the Frogs' lackluster defensive rebounding unit.
I think TCU can keep this one within 15 from a situational and regression perspective.
From a schematic perspective, the Red Raiders could blow out the Horned Frogs.
I’ll ultimately stay away from this game, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the points.
