The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Houston Cougars in the Elite Eight. Tip-off is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on CBS.
Houston is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 126.5 points.
Here are my Tennessee vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for March 30, 2025.
Tennessee vs Houston Predictions, Picks
My Pick: Houston -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
My Tennessee vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Houston Odds, Betting Line
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 126.5 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 126.5 -105o / -115u | -155 |
- Tennessee vs Houston spread: Houston -2.5
- Tennessee vs Houston over/under: 126.5 points
- Tennessee vs Houston moneyline: Houston -155, Tennessee +130
- Tennessee vs Houston best bet: Houston -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Spread
My best bet for Sunday's Elite Eight NCAA Tournament game is for Houston to cover the spread.
Moneyline
While I'm betting the Cougars to cover, I'm going to lay the points instead of betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Houston -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Tennessee Volunteers vs Houston Cougars Betting Analysis: Who Will Win?
The top-seed Houston Cougars had another shaky finish against Purdue, blowing a sizable lead only for Milos Uzan to hit the game-winner. On Tennessee’s side, it was smooth sailing from the jump to beat Kentucky.
If you like defense, this is the game for you.
The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country, ranking first in Bart Torvik’s defense efficiency since Feb. 1. They hold opponents to 48% shooting from inside the arc and 31% from 3.
However, the dominance of Houston’s interior defense and the constant post doubles leads to teams bombing away from 3.
Tennessee is similarly dominant defensively, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency. That’s not the best iteration of a Rick Barnes-coached defense, but it’s among the best in America.
The Vols defense is different than most elite defenses. Many teams, like Houston, force a bunch of turnovers. Tennessee forces turnovers 17% of the time, which ranks 121st nationally.
Meanwhile, the Vols can be a streaky shooting team, connecting on 35% of shots from deep. It’ll be pretty difficult for Tennessee to hit 3s against this vaunted Houston defense, and it has almost no interior scoring attack.
Star guard Chaz Lanier has been terrific in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 17-plus points in each game and 20-plus points in two of the three.
Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson is better than any coach in America at taking away a team’s best player, and Emanuel Sharp has the tools to limit him.
Another worry for the Vols is rebounding. Felix Okpara has some length, but battling J’Wan Roberts and JoJo Tugler inside is a totally different beast. The Cougars grab offensive rebounds 35% of the time, and the Vols sit outside the top 150 in defensive rebounding rate. That should lead to a clean victory in the shot volume battle.
In all, this game really comes down to the guards. We know both teams have great coaches and elite defenses, but each team has a trio of scoring guards.
Sharp, Uzan and L.J. Cryer each shoot over 40% from deep, but Cryer struggled in the Elite Eight.
The Vols rely on Lanier, Zakai Zeigler and Jordan Gainey. However, Lanier is the only efficient shooter on Tennessee’s side, as Gainey and Zeigler are very streaky.
The Cougars are the best 3-point shooting team in America this year at 39.1%, which is pretty absurd for a Houston team.
It’s largely been a chalky tournament to date. I don’t see that changing here.
Houston is one of the best teams in the country and has taken only a single loss since the calendar flipped to 2025. Tennessee is good, but Houston is better at everything that the Vols are good at.
There won’t be many possessions here — Tennessee ranks 359th in adjusted tempo and Houston ranks 360th. The winner has to be the better shooting team and control the glass, and I trust Houston more in both categories.
