The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tennessee is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Tennessee vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for February 11, 2025.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Over 147.5 (Play to 149.5)
My Tennessee vs Kentucky best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | -130 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | +110 |
- Tennessee vs Kentucky spread: Tennessee -2
- Tennessee vs Kentucky over/under: 149.5 points
- Tennessee vs Kentucky moneyline: Tennessee -130, Kentucky +110
- Tennessee vs Kentucky best bet: Over 147.5 (Play to 149.5)
Spread
I'm avoiding the spread.
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm taking the over on the total.
My Pick: Over 147.5 (Play to 149.5)
Tennessee vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
In their first meeting against Kentucky, the Volunteers struggled to get going from beyond the arc, hitting just 11-of-45 from downtown.
While this gave the Volunteers the opportunity to flex their muscles on the offensive glass, the massive number of long misses played right into the strength of the Wildcats.
Kentucky looks to push off of its defensive rebounds, and it'll do so again in this matchup.
However, we should expect some positive shooting regression for the Volunteers, as well. 3-pointers have accounted for over 43% of the Volunteers' offense this season, and they've converted them at an above-average rate of 34%, 12% higher than what they shot against Kentucky on January 28.
This positive regression — combined with the Volunteers' ability to win the rebounding battle on this end of the floor — should help them sustain their offensive output.
Grabbing second-chance buckets could be huge in this matchup, as the Vols secured 18 offensive rebounds in the first meeting.
Both of these factors should allow the Vols to keep up with a Kentucky team that's going to play very fast on its home court.
Kentucky Basketball
As for the Wildcats, aside from their win over the Volunteers, we've seen them be outgunned recently by the likes of Ole Miss and Arkansas.
They allowed 98 and 89 points, respectively, in both of those losses, and now they're going up against a Tennessee team that boasts the best adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the country.
While it's certainly going to be strength against strength on this end of the floor, we saw the Wildcats beat the Volunteers at their own game in the first meeting. They shot 50% from downtown and were excellent around the rim, converting 53% of their shots in the paint.
Kentucky is likely to experience some shooting regression from beyond the arc, given that Tennessee is the top team in terms of 3-point shooting percentage allowed.
However, look for Andrew Carr and Armari Williams to control the paint and keep the Wildcats' offense operating efficiently.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
On paper, this is the one matchup in which Kentucky's high-flying offense should be contained.
However, what the Wildcats lose in efficiency, they'll make up for in volume against Tennessee.
The Vols aren't a team that plays fast, but they're willing to take shots early on in possessions from downtown.
They're expected to have more success in that area here, which only helps scoring.
The misses will allow Kentucky to push the tempo in front of its home crowd.
The first meeting was tied for the slowest tempo the Wildcats posted this year, but it still surpassed this game's total by five points.
Take the over, as this one should be an up-tempo back-and-forth affair.
