The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Louisville Cardinals in Louisville, Kentucky. Tip-off is set for 12:00 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
In this particular matchup, the Volunteers are favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is also set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Louisville predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday.
Tennessee vs Louisville Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 156 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 156 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Tennessee vs Louisville spread: Louisville -1.5
- Tennessee vs Louisville total: 156
- Tennessee vs Louisville moneyline: Louisville -125, Tennessee +105
- Tennessee vs Louisville best bet: Louisville -1.5
Betting Preview & Why to Bet Louisville
Darlinstone Dunbar (personal) is out.
We are still waiting to see when Rick Barnes will remove the monkey off his back for not winning an NCAA Championship, but the Vols had an excellent season in 2023-2024. They rode the coattails of forward Dalton Knecht, the darling of college basketball last season.
Tennessee had a lot of roster turnover in the offseason, and it is a concern heading into a loaded SEC. The Vols lost 63% of their minutes, 68% of their points and 65% of their possessions.
All those rank inside the top 10 entering the year, which is definitely worth monitoring in the early going. We all know that Knecht will be hard to replace, so it will ultimately be up to Barnes to see how his newcomers distribute the scoring.
Some of the newcomers include Felix Okpara (Ohio State), Igor Milicic Jr. (Charlotte), Chaz Lanier (North Florida) and Darlinstone Dubar (Hofstra). They also have a four-star freshman center in Bishop Boswell.
Three of those five join Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack in the starting lineup, which adds a lot of pressure to those two. Zeigler is a strong point guard, but he has never been a dominant scorer.
There is legitimate depth concerns for the Vols, as it appears they are going to run a seven-man rotation for the time being. Cameron Carr, J.P. Estrella and Boswell will contribute a few minutes here and there, but for right now, they will not account for a ton of minutes.
Dubar will be a primary sixth man candidate, and he shot 40% from deep last season. He is sliding into a critical role for Tennessee, especially since it needs to replace so much scoring from a season ago.
I have legitimate questions about who the alpha of the lineup will be, so it will take some time for the Vols to mesh together. Also, they were killed on the glass against Gardner-Webb the other day, which leads me to believe that their rebounding is going to be a significant liability.
There is a lot to like about the Vols, and I would never doubt Barnes as a coach during the regular season. However, there are too many question marks in the starting lineup and with their depth to trust them on the road here.
Pat Kelsey has already made an impact on Louisville's program, and he did a terrific job in the portal. The Cards thoroughly cleaned up their roster and are now bringing in many new faces who are expected to contribute right away.
Here are the newcomers who most of have been inserted into the starting lineup:
- Koren Johnson (11.1 PPG at Washington)
- Terrence Edwards Jr. (17.2 PPG at JMU)
- Kasean Pryor (13 PPG at USF)
- Reyne Smith (12.8 PPG at Charleston)
- Aboubacar Traore (12 PPG at Long Beach State)
- J’Vonne Hadley (11.6 PPG at Colorado)
- Noah Waterman (9.5 PPG at BYU)
- Chucky Hepburn (9.2 PPG at Wisconsin)
- James Scott (5 PPG at Charleston)
- Frank Anselem-Ibe (2.6 PPG at Georgia)
There are a ton of great additions through the portal, and the beautiful aspect of this new era of college basketball is that a dumpster fire program like Louisville can suddenly surge back into the spotlight in one year. Louisville has had a ton of proud basketball history at its school, but the recent years have been gruesome.
I love what Kelsey has done with his roster and I am incredibly fond of Edwards, Pryor and Johnson. That trio alone will cause headaches for opposing defenses, and they should be a solid offensive team because of that.
I have yet to mention Hepburn, a terrific perimeter defender who will stabilize the backcourt. The Cards will be competitive immediately, and they are a true sleeper team entering the 2024-2025.
Due to Tennessee's question marks, the Cards should be able to score at will inside and win the rebounding battle. They did an excellent job protecting the basketball in their first game, so as long as they continue that trend, they are going to score a lot of points.
Tennessee vs Louisville Betting Analysis
Judging these teams early in the season is tough, but I love Louisville at home here. KenPom projects the Vols as two-point road dogs, and the Cards have already become a favorite on the spread.
Throughout his coaching career, Kelsey is 1-12 against ranked opponents, but I do not think he's ever had a roster like this. A lot of people are going to be high on the Vols because of their performance last season, but to me, the AP Polls and the betting market are overestimating them to begin the year.
You can make the argument that both teams have a ton of mysteries because of the roster turnover, but I trust what the Cards did in the portal over the Vols.
Give me the Cards to make a massive statement before Thanksgiving.
Pick: Louisville -1.5
