The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, TX. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tennessee is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 135.5 points.
Here are my Tennessee vs. Texas predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
Tennessee vs Texas Prediction
Tennessee vs Texas Pick: PASS | Lean Tennessee -5 and Under 135.5
My Tennessee vs Texas best bet is a pass, although I slightly lean toward Tennessee and the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Texas Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -112 | 135.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -108 | -135.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Tennessee vs Texas spread: Tennessee -5
- Tennessee vs Texas over/under: 135.5 points
- Tennessee vs Texas moneyline: Tennessee -225, Texas +185
- Tennessee vs Texas best bet: PASS | Lean Tennessee -5 and Under 135.5
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether, although I lean toward Tennessee, given Texas has underperformed against elite competition all year.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on this game altogether, but I lean toward the under, as I think the schematic matchup is tough for both offenses.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Tennessee -5 and Under 135.5
Tennessee vs Texas Score Prediction
I’m pretty low on both teams compared to the market.
Texas is an elite defensive squad. The Horns have length and athleticism on the perimeter, combined with an elite interior rim protector in Kadin Shedrick. I’m surprised they don’t rank higher in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings (97.5, 42nd nationally).
That said, I think the Longhorns have some serious continuity issues on offense. They’re strong in their dribble creation, but there are too many ball-dominant creators and not enough spot-up shooters, resulting in a poor shot profile — they rank 340th nationally in rim-and-3 rate.
I think their underlying process is hidden by their crazy hot shooting, as I don’t expect them to keep shooting over 40% from 3. Arthur Kaluma, Tre Johnson, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark have combined to make 99 of their 233 attempted triples, a 44% rate that can’t be sustainable.
For what it’s worth, ShotQuality projects the Horns should be shooting closer to 36% based on the “quality” of attempts taken.
Texas beat down the six KenPom sub-300 teams it faced, but the Horns couldn’t crack 65 points against UConn and Texas A&M. They posted 82 against Auburn, but most of that was in garbage time, given they trailed 61-40 with 12 minutes left in the second half — they shouldn't have covered that game (lost by five as 10-point 'dogs).
However, I have similar concerns about Tennessee’s defense. The Volunteers are unquestionably an elite defensive squad. Still, they allow a ton of perimeter jumpers (341st nationally in 3-point rate allowed), which opponents have hit at a meager 24% clip (the lowest nationally).
I suspect the Vols will experience serious negative regression. ShotQuality projects that opponents should shoot closer to 32% based on the “quality” of their attempts.
I think some of that regression came in the blowout loss to Florida, as the Gators did shoot a slightly more reasonable 30% from 3 (6-for-20). But most of the Gators' dominance came on fast-break (22 points) and second-chance (19 points) opportunities, which seems like a one-off anomalous performance.
From a schematic perspective, the best way to beat Tennessee is to space the floor, move the ball and hit as many weak-side catch-and-shoot jumpers as possible. You must stretch the Vols because you’ll never beat them off the dribble, in transition or at the rim.
Unfortunately, Texas is going to try and beat Tennessee off the dribble and in transition.
On the other end of the court, Rick Barnes will run his flex-motion offense, mostly floppy off-ball screening action and rim-running cuts. The Vols take most of their shots in the high-painted areas and from 3.
The Longhorns’ length helps them run opponents off the 3-point line, so I suspect they could hang with any off-ball screening actions. And Shedrick does an excellent job protecting the rim, so they’re a decent cut-denial defense.
The situational spot is also tough to gauge. I suspect Tennessee will come out with its hair on fire after that disgusting blowout loss, but the Horns could be similarly motivated at home after back-to-back losses to two top-15 teams.
Ultimately, I can’t get an excellent feel for this game. There are too many conflicting factors to feel confident placing my money on the side or total.
I’d probably look toward Tennessee and the under if I felt compelled to wager on this game.
The schematic matchup points toward a lower-scoring affair, and I don’t project a super fast pace with how elite these two are in transition denial. But Tennessee’s looming negative regression on defense scares me, even if the Horns are due for similar regression on offense.
I also make the number a bit higher than the market does.
Meanwhile, I'm way lower on Texas than I am on Tennessee. The Horns have yet to play up in competition, and their analytical profile could be inflated due to a cupcake schedule (ranking 305th nationally in strength of schedule).
However, the line is pretty steep, especially when Texas is 2-0 ATS as a home 'dog under head coach Rodney Terry.
