The Texas Longhorns take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 148.5 points.
Here are my Texas vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for February 26, 2025.
Texas vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Arkansas -3.5 (Play to -5)
My Texas vs Arkansas best bet is on the Razorbacks spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Arkansas Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 148.5 -105 / -115 | +150 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 148.5 -105 / -115 | -180 |
- Texas vs Arkansas spread: Arkansas -3.5
- Texas vs Arkansas over/under: 148.5 points
- Texas vs Arkansas moneyline: Arkansas -180, Texas +150
- Texas vs Arkansas best bet: Arkansas -3.5 (Play to -5)
Spread
Even without Adou Thiero, I trust the trajectory of Arkansas much more than that of Texas.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline here, unless you want to parlay Arkansas moneyline with a bigger favorite to reduce the juice.
Over/Under
I don't have a strong read on the total on this game, so it's a no bet for me.
My Pick: Arkansas -3.5 (Play to -5)
Texas vs Arkansas College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas Basketball
In a historic year for SEC basketball, Texas did something this past weekend that no other team has yet to accomplish. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that “accomplishment” was losing to South Carolina, giving the Gamecocks their first conference win of the season.
Even worse: It was in blowout fashion, as Texas trailed by as many as 22 and lost by a final score of 84-69.
That put Texas in a precarious position. Like Arkansas and several other SEC squads, Texas resides squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The Longhorns are at the disadvantage of having done next to nothing in the non-conference (their best win was … Saint Joe’s at a neutral site?), so they need to perform in league play. They’ve nabbed a few key wins at home, but their overall record – just 16-11 – is going to be a limitation.
That means exacting some road revenge in Fayetteville is crucial. Getting swept by a bubble rival in Arkansas would be a major concern as a comparison point on Selection Sunday.
The Longhorns’ identity this season hasn't been a secret: play through talented shot-creators and shot-makers, letting them attack inferior defenders to get to their spots.
Tre Johnson is the NBA prospect of the bunch, a freshman capable of getting on otherworldly hot streaks. Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma are all talented individual scorers, as well, though Mark and Kaluma have dealt with nagging injuries recently.
The problem for Texas is that it relies so heavily on those difficult jump shots that it can go through scoring droughts when they don't drop. Per ShotQuality, Texas ranks 349th nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, underscoring its reliance on the mid-range.
Arkansas Basketball
Here come the Hogs!
John Calipari’s squad has roared back onto the bubble with a renewed defensive identity recently, reinventing itself after an injury to star freshman guard Boogie Fland back in mid-January.
Arkansas is now in nearly every current bracket projection, and though the Hogs are still in a very tenuous position, the outlook is significantly rosier than it was a month ago.
Though the defense has been the major story, the Razorbacks got a huge win on Saturday night largely thanks to their offense.
They blitzed the Missouri defense in the paint, shooting a scorching 65.7% inside the arc. Their big men – Zvonimir Ivisic, Thiero, Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile – combined to go 12-of-16 on 2-pointers.
That interior scoring is another shift without Fland. Ivisic has elevated from a rotational afterthought in December and January to a 30-minute-per-game centerpiece, giving the Hogs a dominant two-way rim presence who can also step out and hit jumpers.
His foot speed can be a hindrance, but with so many athletes around him – Thiero, Karter Knox, Billy Richmond III – the Hogs can offset that weakness.
Finally, Johnell Davis has found his stride without Fland. Often looking lost and searching for his role early in the season, Davis has become a force in the time since the high-usage freshman went down.
The stats tell the story: In 16 games with Fland, Davis averaged 8.3 points per game and took 0.9 free throws per contest. In the ensuing nine games, he's tallying 14.7 points per game and taking four free throws per night.
His assertiveness has risen astronomically.
Texas vs. Arkansas Betting Analysis
From a spot sense, this sets up better for Texas. Off a shaky loss, the Longhorns profile as the more desperate team.
Arkansas, meanwhile, just got one of its biggest wins of the season.
However, given that both teams are in a precarious spot, it’s hard to imagine Texas out-efforting or being more motivated than Arkansas, so my handicap isn't heavily factoring in that scenario.
Another key factor is the health of both sides. Kaluma is working his way back from his injury, while Thiero – probably the Hogs’ most consistent player all season – was ruled out for the game on Tuesday night.
His absence takes away a versatile defender, an active rebounder, an emphatic finisher and an overall difficult matchup thanks to his combination of physicality and athleticism.
His absence could make it difficult for the Hogs to fully bottle up all of Texas’ talented scorers. Thiero could reasonably have been the extinguisher if Mark, Johnson or Kaluma got hot, but now the Hogs’ freshmen (Knox and Richmond) may get asked to step into pivotal defensive roles.
In the paint, Ivisic against Texas center Kadin Shedrick will be an intriguing battle. Shedrick is a stout presence, but he's not fully accustomed to chasing a big man out to the perimeter.
If Ivisic hits a couple of shots, it'll open up some driving lanes in the Texas defense.
This handicap pulls me in different directions, but even without Thiero, I actually want to ride with the team playing better basketball (Arkansas). The Hogs battled at both Auburn and Texas A&M, and while they came up short, they looked significantly better than Texas did on the road at South Carolina.
Without Thiero, this line could continue to creep down, so monitor it towards game time. I would put a half-unit on anything below -5.
