Texas vs Baylor Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -112 | 146 -108o / -112u | OFF |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -108 | 146 -108o / -112u | OFF |
Editor's Note: Dylan Disu (stomach virus) is a game-time decision.
The Baylor Bears continue to roll through the Big 12. They have recovered since suffering a crushing defeat against Houston last week, racking up wins against TCU and Kansas.
Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns are flying under everybody's radar. The Longhorns have quietly won four of their last six games and have already defeated the Bears earlier in the season.
Many assume Baylor will roll over Texas and seek revenge, but I disagree with that narrative.
Texas Longhorns
Rodney Terry's Longhorns can be a dangerous team in March because of their elite backcourt. Guards Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter are one of the best duos in the entire country and don't get the credit they deserve.
Just like the first matchup between these two teams, it is a good situation for the Longhorns. They have the offensive ability to exploit weaknesses on the Bears' defensive side of the floor. Texas enters the matchup ranked in the top 40 in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Longhorns have the talent and tools to beat anybody on any given night.
Specifically in this matchup, Texas should generate plenty of open looks from deep and also be able to attack Baylor inside. The Bears have recently implemented a 1-3-1 zone on defense that has given their opponents a lot of trouble. They didn't play much zone in the first matchup between these two, but I don't think it will make a difference against the Longhorns. Texas is a terrific passing team and is top 50 in the country in A/FGM.
Their 3-point shooting is elite enough to crack the zone, so there should not be any concerns of offensive drought. They do not heavily rely on the 3, but they've proven that they can hit them consistently.
Defensively, they have the chops to contain the elite Bears shooting attack, but the stats from the first matchup suggest otherwise. The Bears went 11-of-22 from deep against Texas last time. The Longhorns are 181st in opposing 3PT% but are top 35 in 3-point attempts allowed per game. There are better days ahead for the perimeter defense, and this would be the perfect time to cash in on that.
The one area of concern for the Longhorns is their defensive rebounding ability. Baylor is one of the best teams in the country in crashing the offensive glass, and Texas does not box out enough consistently.
If the Longhorns do a better job of crashing the boards, there is no question they can hang tough and potentially pull off the upset on the road.
Baylor Bears
Scott Drew's coaching can carry the talented Bears to unprecedented heights, and I am officially a believer. They are one of the most talented offenses in the country and that alone can lead to a deep run in March.
But let's hold our horses. The market might be overreacting a tad too much in this matchup.
Baylor is fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and for good reason. It is loaded with talented guards and has the physicality down low to hang with any opponent.
They are third in the country in 3PT%, which bodes well against the Longhorns. Guards RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn are each shooting 40% or better from deep. The Bears are still waiting to see if guard Langston Love can return to the lineup, as he is also sporting a ridiculous 50% clip from deep. Even without Love, forward Jalen Bridges possesses a 41% 3-point percentage of his own.
As you can tell, there are endless offensive options for the Bears, but it is the defensive side of the ball that gives me concerns. They've been consistently abused inside and their perimeter defense is sketchy at best.
There is reason to believe there is positive regression looming for their perimeter defense, but even with the Longhorns being a small team, they can exploit the Bears on the interior. I can't lay the points with Baylor at home given the matchup.
Texas vs. Baylor
Betting Pick & Prediction
It may seem like a contrarian pick considering the Longhorns have already beaten the Bears, but I am backing them again here. KenPom agrees with the market that the line should be Baylor -7, but there are a lot of areas for Texas to capitalize on to keep the game within reach.
The Longhorns are talented enough offensively to crack the new-look 1-3-1 Baylor zone and their perimeter defense is due for positive regression. The Bears should have no trouble scoring, but their defensive issues scare me far too much to lay points with them at the moment.
Baylor is also coming off a big win against Kansas, so there is always potential for a letdown. I like the Bears' ceiling moving forward if they figure out their defensive issues, but for this particular matchup, I am riding with the Longhorns all day.
