The Texas Longhorns take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2025.
Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State -7 (Play to -7.5)
My Texas vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Mississippi State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 150.5 -112 / -108 | +240 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 150.5 -112 / -108 | -298 |
- Texas vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -7.5
- Texas vs Mississippi State over/under: 150.5 points
- Texas vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi State -298, Texas +240
- Texas vs Mississippi State best bet: Mississippi State -7 (Play to -7.5)
Spread
I'm taking the Bulldogs on the spread.
Moneyline
There's no value on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Mississippi State -7 (Play to -7.5)
Texas vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
When you're on the bubble, it's not helpful to lose three straight and six of seven, even when you play in a loaded conference like the SEC.
That's exactly the position Texas is in right now, and it's particularly concerning how these losses are happening. The Longhorns lost to 12-17 South Carolina by 15 and got smoked by 16 by Georgia in their own building in a game with massive implications.
The Longhorns are sitting right on the cut line — Bracket Matrix has them outside the Field of 68, while ESPN's Bracketology has them in the "Last Four In" category. However, it almost feels as if the Longhorns have checked out.
Two things that factor into this handicap: the status of Tramon Mark (questionable) and the road woes for the Horns.
Mark was unavailable for the Longhorns against Georgia, and his absence in this affair — or if he's at less than 100% — would negativity impact Texas on both ends of the floor.
Mark is key on offense, but more importantly, his role defensively against Mississippi State star Josh Hubbard is critical.
This also puts more pressure on the Longhorns' other shot creators on offense — freshman Tre Johnson, Arthur Kaluma and Jordan Pope.
Second, Texas is 306th in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric, as it has only two true road victories in SEC play (Oklahoma, LSU).
Finally, Mississippi State ranks 55th in KenPom's defensive adjusted efficiency metric, meaning it'll likely make life difficult for Texas when it tries to create via isolation with Johnson and Pope. Expect Chris Jans to have a strong game plan.
