The Texas Longhorns take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Texas is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 145 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. NC State predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Texas vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: Under 145
My Texas vs NC State best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs NC State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | -155 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | +130 |
- Texas vs NC State spread: Texas -2.5
- Texas vs NC State over/under: 145 points
- Texas vs NC State moneyline: Texas -155, NC State +130
- Texas vs NC State best bet: Under 145
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm targeting the under.
My Pick: Under 145
Texas vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
Texas Basketball
The Horns lost their first matchup of the season against Ohio State, but they have been rolling ever since. A lot of that has to do with their star freshman Guard Tre Johnson, who is a future All-American in the making.
There is a lot of hype around Johnson, but it's more than deserved. He is the Horns' leading scorer, drilling 42% of his triples thus far.
Forward Arthur Kuluma has strongly complemented Johnson, anchoring the frontcourt.
This matchup could be better for the Horns. They have UConn on deck, so there could be a slight lookahead issue.
The Horns are also due for shooting regression, considering they shoot a 36% clip from deep despite not taking too many triples. Defensively, they have held strong in that area, holding opponents to a 33% 3-point rate.
They will hold the height advantage, which should bode well against a bad Wolfpack defensive rebounding team. There are depth concerns, but they have a strong enough core to outplay the Wolfpack on any night.
I'm not running to the window to back the Horns, given their strength of schedule. Add in the lookahead situational spot, and I will look to take them down the road.
NC State Basketball
After their magical Final Four run, the Wolfpack are looking to establish a new identity in the post-DJ Burns Jr. era. The Pack have lost their last two games and now face a talented Horns team at home.
Oddsmakers believe the Wolfpack are better than the Horns, but the size disadvantage concerns me. The Wolfpack have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation, and it won't get any easier against the Horns.
They only shoot 30% from deep, although they do not take many 3s per game. That won't work against a strong defensive team in the Horns.
To make matters worse, the Horns are the No. 1 team in the country in opposing 2-point percentage. On Wednesday, the Wolfpack may face a premium on points.
They have done a good job on the defensive end, ranking 64th in adjusted efficiency. The Horns are also due for shooting regression, so the Wolfpack need to take advantage of their easy scoring opportunities.
Texas vs. NC State Betting Analysis
I love the under in this spot. However, I don't feel comfortable backing either team, even though the market is overrating the Horns.
Both teams are struggling to score.
Although undersized, the Wolfpack should capitalize on the negative shooting regression looming for the Longhorns.
I also believe the Horns should dominate the glass, which will garner them more extra possessions that will churn the clock.
It's a terrible spot for the Longhorns, as we could see the impacts of a lookahead come on the offensive end. Also, their depth issues could correlate to tired legs late in the game.
I expect a slower-paced game with both defenses showing up.
