The Texas Longhorns (14-6, 3-4 SEC) take on the Ole Miss Rebels (15-5, 4-3) in Oxford, MS. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Ole Miss is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -278. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 141.5 points.
Here are my Texas vs. Ole Miss predictions and college basketball picks for January 29, 2025.
Texas vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Ole Miss -5.5 (Play to -7)
My Texas vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Rebels spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs. Ole Miss Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -109 | 140.5 -117o / -105u | +195 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -112 | 140.5 -117o / -105u | -265 |
- Texas vs Ole Miss spread: Ole Miss -6, Texas +6
- Texas vs Ole Miss over/under: 140.5
- Texas vs Ole Miss moneyline: Ole Miss ML -265, Texas ML +195
Texas vs. Ole Miss NCAAB Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Hitting the Road
Texas hits the road after a wild and ultimately successful two-game homestand in Austin.
The Longhorns put a late 13-2 run on Missouri last week to scrape out a victory in a 61-53 rock fight and then they erased a 22-point second-half deficit against rival Texas A&M on Saturday.
That’s not their first epic comeback, either: they almost dug out of a 21-point hole against No. 1 Auburn, as well.
Many Longhorn contests have major in-game swings. Generally speaking, that makes sense given their style. Texas is supremely reliant on tough shot-making, especially from the high-usage trio of Tre Johnson, Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope.
All three are highly capable scorers, but because they take such difficult looks, they can run very hot and cold. Johnson and Mark caught fire down the stretch against the Aggies, sparking that stunning comeback.
The shaky shot diet is clearly present in the data. Texas ranks 346th nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, per ShotQuality, instead banking on Johnson, Pope and Mark feasting in the mid-range. It can work because of how talented that trio is, but it does make Texas susceptible to droughts.
Texas also has a key injury question in Arthur Kaluma. A versatile defender who's having by far his most efficient scoring season, Kaluma missed the Longhorns’ clash with Texas A&M. Coach Rodney Terry labeled him day-to-day with a left knee ailment.
Of course, Texas has a fantastic alternative in Jayson Kent, a utility forward who knows how to fill a role.
Kaluma’s impact is felt most on the glass, where he's a dominant defensive rebounder. Kent is nowhere near his level in that category, which puts an even greater burden on center Kadin Shedrick.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Time to Buy Low?
Two weeks ago, Ole Miss was the toast of the college basketball world. At 15-2 overall and 4-0 in the SEC with a stunning win at Alabama, Chris Beard’s squad was flying high.
Fast forward to now, though, and the Rebels are reeling. They have lost three tough ones in a row, cooling the buzz around the squad. This one against Texas is massive with Auburn and Kentucky coming to town next.
Unsurprisingly, now that Beard is reunited with Mark Adams, defense is the Rebels’ calling card.
They sit 10th in KenPom’s defensive rankings (13th, per Bart Torvik), fueled by on-ball pressure that forces turnovers on 23% of possessions. That’s the ninth-highest rate in the country, per KenPom.
In fact, turnovers have been a massive part of the Rebels’ success on both sides of the ball. They rank third nationally in turnover margin, coughing it up 6.6 fewer times per game than their opponents.
For a team that's not overly imposing on the glass, dominating the turnover battle has helped Ole Miss stay competitive in terms of shot volume.
An outstanding and deep perimeter group has made that possible.
Sean Pedulla has been a revelation in his first year in Oxford, perfectly adapting to Beard’s defensive scheme while retaining his silky jump shot from his Virginia Tech days. Splitting ball-handling duties with Jaylen Murray has helped both players to blossom.
It also helps to have scorers that take care of the rock. Malik Dia and Matthew Murrell are both extremely sure-handed bucket-getters, smartly staying within themselves when it comes to making plays for others.
The status of Dre Davis is worth monitoring here. The rangy wing is arguably the Rebels’ best defender, and he missed the loss at Missouri on Saturday due to an “upper extremity” injury. He's switchable and disruptive, and per CBB Analytics, Ole Miss surrenders 10.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court.
Texas vs. Ole Miss Pick & Betting Analysis
This game matches two of the weaker rebounding teams in the SEC, negating any potential disadvantage for either squad in that department.
Texas has really struggled in league play on the defensive glass, but Ole Miss sits dead last in offensive rebounding rate in the SEC. That shifts the focus to other portions of the matchup.
Can Texas handle the Ole Miss pressure? The Longhorns do have multiple ball-handlers, and they rank 16th nationally in lowest offensive turnover rate, per KenPom.
Some of that is due to a terrible non-conference schedule, though: in SEC play, they rank just seventh in turnover rate. Perhaps there's more vulnerability than a quick glance at the numbers shows.
The spot sets up extremely well for the host Rebels. You can buy low on the better team (Ole Miss) that has lost three games in a row and now finds itself back at home.
At the same time, you're also selling somewhat high on a Texas team that survived two close shaves at home and must now go on the road after those emotional efforts.
The Davis and Kaluma injuries somewhat offset each other, though it's possible one of them plays and the other does not. I’d value Davis a little more highly than Kaluma solely based on the ability of their replacements, but again, both of their statuses are TBD as of writing.
I can't resist taking the better team that's in a more desperate situation.
Barring an outlier shooting performance for the Longhorns, I think Ole Miss gets back on track in front of its home crowd, bringing Texas back down to Earth in the process. I would back the Rebels up to -7.
