The Texas Longhorns take on the Texas A&M Aggies in College Station, TX. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Texas A&M is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -265. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here are my Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
Texas vs Texas A&M Odds, Spread
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 141.5 -112o / -108u | +215 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 141.5 -112o / -108u | -265 |
- Texas vs Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -5
- Texas vs Texas A&M over/under: 139.5 points
- Texas vs Texas A&M moneyline: Texas A&M -265, Texas +215
- Texas vs Texas A&M best bet: Texas A&M -5 (Play to -6)
My Texas vs Texas A&M best bet is on the Aggies spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Texas A&M NCAAB Betting Preview
I don’t love the schematic matchup, and I’m always weary of backing Texas A&M’s half-court execution.
But I can’t help myself.
Texas has played nobody. The Longhorns rank 360th nationally in strength of schedule and are coming off four consecutive wins against KenPom sub-200 opponents.
They’ve failed both major tests (80-72 loss to Ohio State and 76-65 loss to Connecticut) and struggled in their one true road opportunity (63-59 win over KenPom No. 83 NC State).
I think Texas gets punched in the mouth by an uber-physical Texas A&M team that’s been fully battle-tested. The Aggies rank 50th nationally in strength of schedule, with five wins over KenPom top-50 squads.
Texas A&M is old, experienced and rock-solid defensively, ranking sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Again, I don’t entirely trust the Aggies’ chaotic, messy offense. Still, they’ll consistently win the shot-volume battle by dominating Buzz Williams’ extras — i.e., crashing the offensive glass, winning the turnover battle and getting to the line.
Plus, Wade Taylor IV is one of the game’s great heat-check artists, and I’m sure he’ll be fired up for this rivalry game.
Meanwhile, I have serious questions about the Longhorns’ continuity.
They’re lengthy and elite defensively, but I don’t love how Tre Johnson, Arthur Kaluma and Tramon Mark fit together as ball-dominant wings — especially considering the team’s questionable shot selection (331st nationally in Rim-and-3 Rate).
They could score in transition in this matchup, but the ‘Horns will mostly play isolation hero ball in the half-court and cut off the one-on-one action, two sets that Texas A&M can shut down (.63 ISO PPP allowed, 88th percentile; .92 cutting PPP allowed, 96th percentile).
I also suspect Texas’ offensive metrics are vastly overvalued after playing a cupcake schedule. The ‘Horns happily piled up over 100 points against Chicago State and Arkansas Pine Bluff, but they failed to crack 65 against NC State and UConn.
Furthermore, I think the Longhorns are due for a slight negative regression on offense. They can't keep canning 42% of their triples. Based on the “quality” of their attempts, ShotQuality projects that they should be shooting closer to 37%.
I’m banking on Texas putting up a total dud offensively on the road in its biggest test yet. I can’t say that Texas A&M will post a crooked number, but the Aggies should earn enough second-chance and free throw opportunities to squeak out a cover in their SEC home opener.
For what it’s worth, KenPom, Haslametrics and EvanMiya project the Aggies as over six-point home favorites against Texas.
I feel there’s a bit of value in the number.
Pick: Texas A&M -5 (Play to -6)
