The Texas State Bobcats take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in Lafayette, LA. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Texas State is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -258. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my Texas State vs. Louisiana predictions and college basketball picks for January 23, 2025.
Texas State vs Louisiana Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Louisiana +6
My Texas State vs Louisiana best bet is on the Ragin' Cajuns spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas State vs Louisiana Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 144.5 -108 / -112 | -258 |
| Louisiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 144.5 -108 / -112 | +210 |
- Texas State vs Louisiana spread: Texas State -6
- Texas State vs Louisiana over/under: 144.5 points
- Texas State vs Louisiana moneyline: Texas State -258, Louisiana +210
- Texas State vs Louisiana best bet: PASS | Lean Louisiana +6
Spread
I'm passing on the game altogether, but if I were compelled to bet on this game, I'd back the Cajuns as home 'dogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the spread.
My Pick: PASS | Lean Louisiana +6
Texas State vs Louisiana College Basketball Betting Preview
Situationally, I think the Bobcats are in for a letdown heading on the road after back-to-back home wins, including an overtime victory over Southern Miss last Saturday. This is also a bit of a sandwich spot, as they have a big road test against Arkansas State this upcoming Saturday.
The Bobs are also banged up, as Tyrel Morgan, Kaden Gumbs and Drue Drinnon are dealing with injuries.
That said, from a schematic perspective, Texas State could obliterate Louisiana on the interior. The Bobs use a lot of cutting and rolling action to get to the rim, ultimately scoring over 35 paint points per game (81st percentile, per CBB Analytics) while also crashing the offensive glass and living at the line.
Louisiana ranks last in the Sun Belt in 2-point shooting allowed (54%, per KenPom), last in second-chance points per game allowed (14, per CBB Analytics), second-to-last in free-throw rate allowed (44%, per CBB Analytics) and fourth-to-last in paint points per game allowed (34).
The Cajuns have arguably the worst rim defense in the league, which bodes poorly in this matchup.
That said, Texas State’s offense is likely a tad overvalued. The Bobcats shouldn’t keep shooting nearly 40% from 3 in conference play, especially when they’ve only been shooting 48% from 2-point range (which ranks 10th in the Sun Belt, per KenPom).
On the other end of the court, I think Louisiana can generate some easy buckets in transition. The Cajuns average nearly 1.06 transition PPP at an above-average frequency (15 possessions per game, 79th percentile, per Synergy), and they’ll battle an uber-vulnerable Texas State transition defense (12 fast-break points per game allowed, 20th percentile, per CBB Analytics).
But the half-court prognosis is a little more dire. The Cajuns don’t run a great offense. They play mainly isolation hero ball, attempting (and failing) to get to the rim or driving-and-dishing.
Texas State boasts an excellent isolation defense (.69 PPP allowed, 81st percentile, per Synergy) and a decent catch-and-shoot denial defense (fourth in the Sun Belt in 3-point rate allowed, 36%, per KenPom), so it could be tough for Louisiana to run it’s already inefficient stuff on Thursday.
I can’t find a significant edge for this game, so I’ll likely avoid it altogether.
However, if I felt compelled, I’d likely back the home pup, given Texas State’s tough situational spot, injury issues, overrated offense and vulnerable transition defense.
