#3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Northern Kentucky NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Texas Tech -14
- Over/Under: 137.5
- Date: Friday, March 22
- Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Tulsa, Okla.
- TV: TNT
Texas Tech's Statistical Profile
Texas Tech finished the season as the best in the country defensively per KenPom's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric and slowed the pace on offense, ranking just 226 of 353 teams in terms of Adjust Tempo.
However, none of that worked in their favor as the Red Raiders — who closed as 12.5-point favorites — lost to West Virginia, 79-74, in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals.
With plenty of time to reflect on that loss while preparing for the NCAA Tournament, it'll be interesting to see whether Chris Beard can make the necessary adjustments to get his team ready for deep tourney run. — PJ Walsh
- Record: 26-6
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 9
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 35
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
- Tempo Rank: 226
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Northern Kentucky's Statistical Profile
Northern Kentucky (26-8, 13-5 in conference play) enters the Big Dance riding high, having just upset top seed Wright State 77-66 in the Horizon League Championship game. This marks the second time in three years that the Norse are going dancing.
This year, their expectations will be even higher than year's past. Instead of being a cinderella story, they're looking to do some real damage. NKU will rely on its high powered offense throughout the tournament (NKU averaged 79.1 points per game, 41st in the country and their offensive efficiency ranks 75th according to Ken Pom).
The Norse feature four different players who averaged at least 10 PPG, led by star senior forward and Horizon Tournament MVP Drew McDonald (19.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG). NKU had a great yet, but not for bettors. They went just 10-17 against the spread, losing -7.75 units. — Josh Appelbaum
- Record: 26-8
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 103
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 75
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 144
- Tempo Rank: 146
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Sean Koerner's Texas Tech-Northern Kentucky Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Texas Tech -15.5
- Total: 134
- Proj Score: Texas Tech 75 | Northern Kentucky 59.5
- Win Probability: Texas Tech 96.8% | Northern Kentucky 3.2%
Texas Tech-Northern Kentucky Instant Bracket, Betting Picks
There are benefits to being knocked out of your conference tournament on the first day. Texas Tech will have over a week of rest before a short trip to Tulsa to take on Northern Kentucky.
The Red Raiders excel in defense, ranking 1st in the nation in Ken Pom adjusted efficiency. Opponents ranks in effective field goal percentage, turnovers and blocks are all in the top 11 nationally for Texas Tech.
The question is whether the Norse can put up any kind of offensive game to get a cover. While Northern Kentucky is 23rd in effective field goal percentage, the Norse are 78th in 3-point percentage and a terrible 302nd in free throws. Teams that struggle at the charity stripe do not have much success in the NCAA tournament.
Look for Texas Tech to have a little redemption after an embarrassing loss to West Virginia.
Early ATS lean: Texas Tech
Early bracket pick: Texas Tech — Collin
