The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Florida Gators in the Elite 8. Tip-off is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
Florida is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here are my Texas Tech vs. Florida predictions and college basketball picks for March 29, 2025.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Florida Gators Predictions, Pick
- Pick: Florida -6.5 (Play to -7)
My Florida vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas Tech vs Florida Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -114 | 157 -110o / -110u | +295 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -107 | 157 -110o / -110u | -385 |
- Texas Tech vs Florida spread: Florida -8, Texas Tech +8
- Texas Tech vs Florida over/under: 157 Total Points
- Texas Tech vs Florida moneyline: Florida ML -385, Texas Tech ML +295
- Texas Tech vs Florida best bet: Florida -6.5 (Play to -7)
Texas Tech vs Florida Picks, Best Bets
The one upside to a Cinderella-less NCAA Tournament is that we’re in line for some heavyweight bouts down the stretch. That’s certainly the case on Saturday night when Florida and Texas Tech butt heads.
It’s a top-10 matchup, per KenPom, Bart Torvik and EvanMiya. Will the public continue to reap the rewards of this chalky March, or is time to back a 'dog?
Let’s start with a second weekend trend. In the past 25 years, a dozen teams have won a Sweet 16 game in overtime. Those 12 teams have not fared well in the Elite Eight. Whether it’s an emotional letdown or fatigue, the bottom has fallen out in the following game. Nine of the 12 failed to cover the spread in the Elite Eight.
In the Sweet 16, Texas Tech erased a 16-point second-half deficit and snuck past Arkansas in overtime, 85-83.
Florida, meanwhile, obliterated Maryland by 16 in a game that didn’t even feel that close down the stretch. The Gators found a way to empty their bench and keep their big men fresh for the next round.
Florida has played four top-10 teams in the past six weeks and taken all four to the woodshed. They knocked off Auburn, 90-81, in arguably the most impressive road performance by any team all season long. They followed that up with a five-point road win at Alabama before drilling the Tide and Tennessee by 22 and nine, respectively, in the SEC Tournament.
Dominating those teams is one thing, but doing it away from home speaks to the Gators' near-limitless upside.
Florida is also peaking at the right time. When you factor in its SEC Tournament title run, Florida enters with the most offensive momentum of any team remaining in the field by a wide margin, according to Haslametrics.
They bury 10 triples per game (24th), gobble up offensive rebounds (12.5, fourth) and defend the 3-point line as well as any team in the country (29.3% 3PT, fifth).
Teams have also tried and repeatedly failed to run on UF this season. The Gators' transition defense is elite, allowing just 0.9 points per possession (13th).
Florida’s statistical profile compares favorably to one team Texas Tech has faced this season: Houston. The Cougars defend the 3-point arc, kill opponents on the offensive glass and start three guards who are capable of getting hot on the offensive end.
With a full deck, Texas Tech took down Houston in overtime on Feb. 1. But the rematch didn’t go TTU’s way in Lubbock because it was without two starters in Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams.
The injury report is really where Saturday’s handicap hinges.
Williams has been back in the lineup for weeks and has been playing brilliantly in this tournament, averaging 20 points per game and eight rebounds per game.
However, McMillian remains sidelined with an oblique strain, and his absence hurts the Red Raiders in two ways.
He’s one of the best long-range shooters in America (43% 3PT), and his presence improves Tech’s spacing enormously. This opens up driving lanes, pick-and-roll opportunities and the occasional entry pass to the post for JT Toppin.
McMillian appeared to be ready to play on Thursday, but his oblique injury flared up and he couldn't shoot pain-free. Even if he does give it a go, this is the kind of injury that can be reaggravated at a moment's notice.
Without McMillian contributing meaningful minutes, Texas Tech could get run off the court by the SEC champs. I would lay up to seven with Florida in this Elite Eight matchup.
