The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, TX. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Houston is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -440. The total is set at 128.5 points.
Here’s my Texas Tech vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Texas Tech vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Over 128.5 (Play to 129) if Darrion Williams Plays
My Texas Tech vs Houston best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas Tech vs Houston Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 128.5 -110 / -110 | +340 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 128.5 -110 / -110 | -440 |
- Texas Tech vs Houston spread: Houston -9.5
- Texas Tech vs Houston over/under: 128.5 points
- Texas Tech vs Houston moneyline: Houston -440, Texas Tech +340
- Texas Tech vs Houston best bet: Over 128.5 (Play to 129) if Darrion Williams Plays
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I had to pick a side, I'd take the points with Texas Tech.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'll take the over if Darrion Williams plays.
My Pick: Over 128.5 (Play to 129) if Darrion Williams Plays
Texas Tech vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
This feels like a good sell-high spot for both teams.
Houston is riding the nation’s longest winning streak (13), which includes a 9-0 start to Big 12 play. However, that win streak is only possible because of the Cougars’ miraculous double-overtime victory over Kansas last Saturday.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is now 7-2 in Big 12 play after a five-game win streak. But the Red Raiders played a super soft schedule during the stretch, beating TCU, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati and Kansas State (those four have a combined 10-26 record in conference play).
And they’ve done it largely thanks to some lucky 3-point variance on defense, as conference opponents have shot an unsustainable 28% from deep.
Schematically, I actually like this matchup for the Red Raiders.
The key to beating Houston’s ball-screen blitz is to create weak-side offense through catch-and-shoot opportunities and creative roll-men — the Cougars will overload the ball-handler and force them into secondary creation.
The Red Raiders are elite in their roll creation with JT Toppin, Federiko Federiko and Williams, and they're among the nation’s best floor-spacing and shot-making teams, ranking in the top five nationally in ShotQuality’s metrics.
Essentially, they're the perfect offense to exploit Houston's vulnerabilities (at least on paper).
However, it’s worth mentioning that Williams’ status for this game is unclear as he deals with an ankle injury. Monitor that closely before betting this one.
On the other end of the court, Houston is a ball-screen-centric offense, leveraging Milos Uzan and LJ Cryer as perimeter creators alongside Joseph Tugler and J’Wan Roberts as roll-men.
But Texas Tech is a rock-solid ball-screen coverage unit (.80 PPP allowed, 86th percentile, per Synergy). The REd Raiders have plenty of versatile, laterally mobile, switchable defenders who can swarm on-ball pick-and-roll penetration, so they could hang on that side of the court.
That said, Tech’s defense has been shredded on the road, which helps explain why the Red Raiders rank 319th nationally in Haslametrics away-from-home metric.
And it’s worth mentioning again that their defense may be overrated based on lucky 3-point variance because their interior defense has been far from elite (52% 2-point shooting allowed in conference play, 11th in the Big 12, per KenPom).
Altogether, I think the over is the best play.
Texas Tech can and will hit the weak points of Houston's historically good defense. Also, the Red Raiders are 4-0 in road games because they've scored at will away from home, ranking second nationally in on-the-road offensive efficiency (per Bart Torvik).
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders' defense is vastly overvalued after playing a string of weak offenses. And, as mentioned, the Red Raiders haven't stopped anyone on the road, and they've actually been shredded by the dribble in every road opportunity, which bodes poorly for this matchup with dribble-heavy Houston.
I suspect a higher-scoring-than-expected affair between these two.
However, Williams has to play to make this wager viable, as the Red Raiders need every roll-man available to beat Kelvin Sampson's defense.
Plus, Williams' ability as a pick-and-popper (7-for-12 from 3 on those sets this year) would be monumentally important in this matchup, as Houston's two-to-the-ball ball-screen blitz will leave those opportunities wide open.
