Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have experienced the exact same season.
Both teams have 14 total wins and are separated by just one-half game in the Big 12 standings. They also have eerily similar records against Quadrant 1 and 2 teams and strength-of-schedule metrics.
It is not surprising to see such a low point spread for their Monday night battle in Stillwater.
With both teams in need of this Quadrant 1 win, who should the bettors back in this classic Big 12 battle?
The Matchup
When these teams met in Lubbock on Jan. 2, it was a coming-out party for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were 6-2 overall but had just lost consecutive conference games to TCU at home and Texas on the road. Oklahoma State earned a hard-fought, 82-77 overtime road win, shocking most of the college basketball world.
Oklahoma State will need a better effort at home to sweep the season series. Texas Tech is coming off consecutive losses at home to West Virginia and at Kansas. Head coach Chris Beard will have the Red Raiders playing desperately to avoid a third consecutive Big 12 loss.
Faced with a similar two-game skid just two weeks ago, the Red Raiders responded Texas Tech bounced back with wins over LSU and No. 9 Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State wants to get out and run. The Cowboys rank first among all Big 12 teams in adjusted tempo per KenPom, while Texas Tech is last . However, that fast Oklahoma State pace can lead to carelessness, as it ranks 270th in Division I in offensive turnover percentage. Oklahoma State averages 15.5 turnovers per game, 301st among all Division I teams.
The Cowboys are led by the guard trio of Cade Cunningham, Isaac Likekele and Avery Anderson. They combined to average 38 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists per game. However, the three also contribute almost 10 turnovers per game, a major concern against the opportunistic defense of Texas Tech.
In their first meeting, the Cowboys shot an uncharacteristic 42% (8-of-19) from 3-point land, almost 10 percentage points above their season average. Oklahoma State also shot 75% (18-of-24) from the free throw line but is just 69.5% from the charity stripe in conference play.
Texas Tech's defense is still among the most elite in the nation, ranking 26th with 16.3 forced turnovers per game. It also holds opponents to just 44.7% shooting on 2-point shots, which is 24th-best in the country. That should matchup well with an Oklahoma State team that generates the second-most from inside the arc in the Big 12.
The Red Raiders’ offense is centered around junior guard Mac McClung (16.9 points per game). McClung led Texas Tech with 21 points, including 3-of-7 shooting from 3-point range before fouling out in their first meeting with Oklahoma State.
Beard will need repeat performances from guards Terrence Shannon (12.6 points per game) and Kyler Edwards (9.5 points) who combined for 31 points and 5-of-11 3-point shooting in the first matchup.
The other huge key is the health of guard Kevin McCuller. McCuller was only in his second game back from a high ankle the sprain last time these teams met. Now, he has double-digit points and six or more rebounds in four of his past five games.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Fading the Cowboys as home favorites under head coach Mike Boynton has been very profitable. Oklahoma State is just 23-30 against the spread (ATS) in Stillwater, including failing to cover in five of their past seven games.
The opening line of Texas Tech -2 must have surprised bettors. The Red Raiders are coming off two losses and going on the road to face an Oklahoma State team that already beat them in Lubbock.
Per the Action Network App, the majority of bets are backing Oklahoma State but the overwhelming amount of money is on Texas Tech. This is an early indication of sharp action, which I agree with.
Look for Texas Tech to take advantage of Oklahoma State turnovers, and McCuller to make a big difference in a Red Raiders win.
Pick: Texas Tech -1.5
