Welcome to the 2025 NCAA Tournament!
If you're looking to win your bracket pool this year, Three Man Weave — Jim Root, Ky McKeon and Matthew Cox — has consensus picks on every single game. Read below for their complete 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket.
Each write-up below our official picks comes from the writer who disagreed with the majority.
South Region: First Round
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No. 9 Creighton vs. No. 8 Louisville
By: Ky McKeon
Creighton matches up very well with Louisville on the defensive end. Yes, the Cards can put Ryan Kalkbrenner in ball screens or dribble handoffs, but so can every team in the country – it isn’t a new phenomenon.
The Jays will run the plethora of Louisville shooters off the 3-point arc, knowing full well they have arguably the best rim protector in the country willing and waiting to stop shots at the bucket.
Creighton’s transition defense is also terrific, ranking top-50 in points per possession allowed.
The main concern for Creighton is handling ball pressure, but Louisville shouldn’t overwhelm with size, speed or athleticism.
ACC Defensive Player of the Year (controversial) Chucky Hepburn is a bulldog on the ball, but Steven Ashworth is a senior-plus point guard capable of maintaining his poise under pressure.
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego
By: Matt Cox
This is a fascinating chess match between two coaching chameleons in Eric Olen and Dusty May.
The Tritons' shapeshifting defense forced turnovers at an insane rate this season, especially in their zone, which produced takeaways on 24% of defensive possessions, per Synergy.
However, the recent emergence of Tre Donaldson as a key facilitator may alleviate the burden off Danny Wolf, who's been a turnover problem all year.
He’s also seen countless post doubles throughout Big Ten play, so the UCSD post collapses shouldn’t bother Wolf — or Vlad Goldin — and both will have a substantial size advantage against the Tritons' bigs.
UCSD’s positional length is notable, but the lack of a traditional punishing five-man could be exposed against the Michigan twin towers. Goldin and Wolf are nimble enough to step out and contest UCSD's stretchy bigs on the perimeter defensively.
No. 11 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
By: Jim Root
The Tar Heels have to survive San Diego State on Tuesday, but if they do, this is a terrific matchup for them.
Ole Miss’ switching man-to-man forces turnovers and a huge share of isolation possessions. You need great guards and individual scorers to beat the Rebels.
For all of UNC’s shortcomings, it does have an elite and deep backcourt. The Heels rank 41st in turnover rate, per KenPom, and they're top-20 nationally in isolation efficiency while using it at a top-25 frequency, per Synergy.
Ole Miss also isn't built to exploit the soft underbelly of UNC’s interior defense, as the Rebels’ frontcourt is undersized outside of the burly Malik Dia, and Ole Miss doesn't hit the offensive glass.
South Region: Round of 32
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No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 1 Auburn
By: Matt Cox
Has Auburn lost its mojo? The evidence is mounting that the pressured-tested Tigers are “plateauing” at the wrong time — they’ve limped into the field with three losses in their last four games.
Since the calendar turned to March, opponents are converting 56% of their attempts inside the arc, an ominous indicator that SEC foes found cracks in the once-vaunted Tiger defense.
Louisville, especially with Reyne Smith expected back in the fold, is a tricky matchup, given its ability to space the floor with a four-out attack.
If James Scott can avoid early foul trouble, the Cardinals should be able to compete on the glass and win the possession tug of war to tilt the shot-volume math in their favor.
South Region: Sweet 16
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South Region: Elite Eight
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West Region: First Round
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No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
By: Ky McKeon
Coaching in the NCAA Tournament is extremely important, and though Porter Moser is fantastic at the helm of Oklahoma, Dan Hurley and his staff of geniuses form arguably the best scouting/game-planning group in the nation.
The Huskies have a bulldog of a point-of-attack defender in Hassan Diarra, who should hound the phenomenal freshman Jeremiah Fears as he gets run off countless ball screens in the half court.
UConn forces you to beat it off the bounce, so the Huskies are more than accustomed to guarding pick-and-roll and ball-screen actions.
UConn has a stark advantage inside and should own the glass and the rim on both ends. The concern lies in the Husky big men’s propensity to foul. Oklahoma could live at the line and get the likes of Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. in foul trouble.
Ultimately, look for UConn and its gorgeous offense — that encompasses more off-ball screening and cutting than just about any team in the country — to overcome the less talented Sooners.
No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
By: Matt Cox
In spite of Memphis’ impressive away-from-home performance this year and the Mountain West's previous postseason shortcomings, the roster limitations for the Tigers are daunting.
Not only is Tyrese Hunter unlikely to play, but big man revelation Dain Dainja has battled through multiple minor injuries as well — granted, it didn’t show in his AAC Tournament dominance, but if Dainja is anything less than dominant, the Rams' depth could wear on a thin Tigers rotation over 40 minutes.
There’s a chance Colorado State boasts the best player on the floor in Nique Clifford, who must outduel PJ Haggerty for the Rams to prevail.
But the difference maker is the Rams' reserves, who delivered multiple sparks during their Mountain West title run.
No. 11 Drake vs. No. 6 Missouri
By: Jim Root
Drake and Missouri might be the biggest clash of styles in the entire tournament. The Bulldogs want to play at a snail’s pace, execute deliberately and possess the ball for as long as possible, and their offensive rebounding and propensity to get steals helps tilt the possession equation in their favor.
Missouri, meanwhile, wants to play in transition, pressure and punish defenses in isolation.
On a high-stakes postseason stage, I can't envision a Ben McCollum-coached team getting sped up, and the Bulldogs’ patience could quickly frustrate a Missouri team that's accustomed to far more (and quicker) possessions.
Please don't tell my fellow Missouri alum friends about this.
No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 7 Kansas
By: Jim Root
These two teams are on different trajectories. Kansas and its supremely veteran core (Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams Jr., Dajuan Harris Jr.) appears maxed out, and the fit alongside the new transfer wings simply didn't work this year.
Arkansas, on the other hand, has trended up over the season’s final two months, as Johnell Davis has finally emerged as the scoring alpha envisioned when he committed from FAU.
The Hogs have the size to compete with Dickinson in the paint, and Zvonimir Ivisic’s 3-point shooting could wreck Kansas’ compact defensive scheme (if Ivisic is healthy — his wrist injury is a real question mark).
West Region: Round of 32
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No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
By: Ky McKeon
It wasn’t too long ago that Mizzou was thought of as a legit Final Four contender. That hype has passed as the Tigers struggled down the stretch. But rest assured, that top gear that won at Florida and toppled Alabama still lies within.
Tech is a great team, but Mizzou can go toe-to-toe with the Red Raiders athletically, and Mark Mitchell is a very good option to throw on All-American JT Toppin.
The foul line will be key, as the Tigers look to get Toppin and big man Federiko Federiko into foul trouble with an endless onslaught at the hoop.
Perhaps Tech’s wings aren’t quite able to stay in front of Mizzou’s multiple dynamic perimeter options with Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian coming back off injuries.
The coaching matchup is a concern for Tiger backers, as Grant McCasland is one of the nation’s best and Dennis Gates is completely unpredictable, with his propensity for playing weird lineups seemingly on a whim.
But at the end of the day, this is a Tiger team that's beaten the very best teams in the nation, and it's one that can hang around and beat a Tech squad that has three losses to teams outside the top 65.
Mizzou’s depth versus Tech’s injury concerns could be a major factor.
West Region: Sweet 16
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West Region: Elite Eight
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No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida
By: Jim Root
Florida has looked invincible lately, but I think Texas Tech has the upside to pull off the upset for a shot at the Final Four.
Like the Gators’ Todd Golden, TTU’s McCasland is a rising coaching star, and he has a deep and versatile roster that can compete with Florida in crucial areas.
You have to be able to match Florida’s physicality in the paint, and Texas Tech led the entire Big 12 in defensive rebound rate. Toppin and Federiko are rock solid defensive bigs.
This would likely not be an Elijah Hawkins game, as Florida can pick on him with its stronger guards, but TTU can go a little bigger in the backcourt with Christian Anderson and Kevin Overton.
Plus, Williams’ versatility on the perimeter could bother Florida’s two-big lineups, opening up space to get into driving gaps.
Florida is everyone’s darling right now, but I think Texas Tech — which won at Houston without Toppin for most of the game — has a high enough ceiling to sneak a victory.
East Region: First Round
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No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor
By: Ky McKeon
Mississippi State’s aggressive, physical style should wear down this thin Baylor frontline over the course of 40 minutes.
Norchad Omier is a beast for the Bears, but Mississippi State has multiple athletes to throw at him. The Dogs’ ball-screen-heavy attack led by Josh Hubbard might face challenges if Baylor decides to go to its zone – and 3-point shooting hasn't been an area of success.
Mississippi State’s best path to points on offense will be dominating the offensive glass, as it’s very difficult to get to the rim/into the paint against the Baylor defense.
On the other end, look for Cameron Matthews to draw the VJ Edgecombe (or whoever he wants, he’s that versatile). Matthews is a one-man defensive wrecking crew capable of fully deleting one of Baylor’s primary options.
Finally, electric guards are tailor made for March, and Mississippi State has one in Hubbard. His energy, high-jumping jumpers and swagger could make him a first round darling in the eyes of the nation.
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
By: Matt Cox
The Ducks pose a potential problem to the undersized Liberty frontline, buoyed by the recent emergence of Nate Bittle as an interior centerpiece.
However, the Flames’ dynamite backcourt — albeit little — could put the Ducks’ defenders on their heels. If Ritchie McKay can draw Bittle away from the rim, Oregon’s defense could be exposed by a structurally unique offense, one in which Oregon didn't face in the Big Ten this year.
The key will be athletic neutralizers, Zach Cleveland and Owen Aquino, who must limit the Ducks' offense to one-and-done possessions.
Liberty will look to run opportunistically off misses, which could catch Oregon by surprise as well.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 VCU
By: Jim Root
The travel spot for VCU is challenging. After capturing the A-10 Tournament title on Sunday, the Rams have to fly to Denver — aka elevation — and play a team that's already plenty accustomed to elevation.
BYU is also rolling, having won nine of 10 and ranking 30th in Haslemterics’ Momentum metric.
Matchup-wise, VCU’s ball pressure could be an issue against the Cougars, who struggled mightily with the same style against Houston (albeit a mega souped up version).
But the Cougars' deadly ball movement and perimeter shooting can help solve that riddle, and the offensive rebounding of Fousseyni Traore and Keba Keita will give BYU plenty of putbacks and kick-out triples.
East Region: Round of 32
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No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 5 Oregon
By: Ky McKeon
Former Pac-12 rivals meet in a game to go to the Sweet 16. It’s not super relevant, but it’s worth noting that Tommy Lloyd is 4-2 all-time against Oregon over his three seasons at Arizona.
His Wildcats have a ton of size to offset the Bittle brigade and plenty of mobility to stick with Bittle on pops when the Ducks use him in ball screens.
Oregon plays through the post at one of the highest rates in the country, and though Synergy tells us Arizona is only “pretty good” at defending on the block, the Cats’ paint and rim defense has been good this season.
Offensively, Caleb Love is the feast or famine creator in Lloyd’s up-tempo, ball screen attack.
Like the Cats on the block, the Ducks have been “pretty good” stopping transition and the pick-and-roll.
This game should be high scoring, and Arizona’s edges in offense, rebounding and overall defense should push it ahead into the next round.
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
By: Matt Cox
The Rams are a defensive monster, armed with multiple lengthy wings capable of matching up with the dueling dragon duo of John Blackwell and John Tonje, who roasted Big Ten defenses all season.
Granted, the Rams’ interior backbone is the secret sauce in their defensive success, but Max Shulga (6-foot-5), Zeb Jackson (6-foot-4) and Joe Bamisile (6-foot-4) at least stack up physically with the Tonje/Blackwell duo.
Dynamite playmaker Phillip Russell profiles as a quintessential X-factor in this matchup, particularly against a Wisconsin team that lacks a neutralizing point guard as quick as Russell is in the open floor.
With Russell healthy and confident, the Rams have an "ace up their sleeve" capable of spurring a quick burst that could be the difference.
East Region: Sweet 16
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No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
By: Jim Root
Alabama has the firepower to outscore a Wisconsin team that's become predicated on its offense. Even with Tonje playing as well as he is, Mark Sears will be the best guard on the floor, and even Badger ballhawk Kamari McGee will be unable to slow him down.
On the other end, the Badgers can light up the sky from deep, but the Tide’s defense — though generally porous — makes a concerted effort to run opponents off the 3-point arc.
Plus, Grant Nelson’s injury issues should be resolved by the second weekend, as he may already play in the Crimson Tide’s opener (or potentially in the Tide’s second-round game on Sunday).
East Region: Elite Eight
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Midwest Region: First Round
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No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Clemson
By: Matt Cox
McNeese is a tough nut to crack. It hasn't played anyone remotely close to Clemson’s weight class in months, but it battled admirably in the non-conference against Alabama and Mississippi State.
In both of those games, the Cowboys settled into a back-and-forth possession affair, a blueprint of what this matchup against Clemson will look like.
Remember, McNeese is far healthier now than it was back in November, while Clemson is down a key utility man in Dillon Hunter, which strips the already thin Tigers backcourt of another piece.
In a low-possession game, Clemson’s margin for error feels uncomfortably narrow.
No. 13 High Point vs. No. 4 Purdue
By: Matt Cox
Purdue’s defense is a house of cards. The Boilers can’t guard their shadow at the moment and are beneficiaries of fortuitous opposing shooting luck in Big Ten play.
Braden Smith and his savvy defensive instincts somewhat compensate by forcing turnovers at an abnormally high clip for Matt Painter's team, but the Boilers don’t apply in your face pressure, which could allow High Point to unleash its high octane offense with little resistance.
This one has shootout written all over it, and the Panthers’ shotmaking could really shine if this game opens up.
No. 11 Texas/Xavier vs. No. 6 Illinois
By: Jim Root
For Illinois, this play-in matchup is an Alien vs. Predator situation: whoever wins, we lose.
Both Texas and Xavier feature a plethora of terrific shotmakers off the bounce, and Illinois’ drop coverage in ball screens is designed to force opponents into those dribble jumpers.
Whether it's Ryan Conwell, Dailyn Swain and Dayvion McKnight (Xavier) or Tre Johnson, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark (Texas), Illinois’ opponent will be comfortable offensively.
Of course, Illinois will have an edge on the glass in either matchup, but Xavier — in particular — is stout on the defensive boards.
No. 14 Troy vs. No. 3 Kentucky
By: Matt Cox
The Trojans have to win the shot volume battle.
Troy’s ability to tilt the possession scales in its favor by barraging the offensive glass.
Pestering the opposing backcourt may be an uphill climb against this Kentucky team, but there’s other advantages for the Trojans in this matchup.
Kentucky’s porous perimeter defense paves the way for big time games from Tayton Conerway and his two counterparts, Myles and Marcus Rigsby Jr. All three are versatile scorers, albeit streaky, but capable of catching fire if they find a groove.
Even with Lamont Butler back, the Wildcats’ inability to limit paint touches should help Troy score in bunches and keep pace with Kentucky’s blistering offensive tempo.
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah State
By: Jim Root
The matchup concerns here are clear: Utah State’s tricky matchup zone could befuddle the Bruins — who have rarely seen zone looks in the Big Ten this year — and UCLA doesn't have the volume shooters to fully punish the Aggies for all of the perimeter looks that zone allows.
Plus, UCLA hasn't been the same team when traveling across the country.
However, Utah State has to make a similar trip to Lexington, and the Bruins’ Tyler Bilodeau could feast in the vulnerable middle of the Aggies’ defense.
Bilodeau has a high skill level, plenty of patience and soft touch, all of which make him a nightmare when he gets touches at the foul line/in the paint.
This will be a seesaw matchup, but I'm ultimately comfortable trusting the ultra-consistent Mick Cronin against rising star Jerrod Calhoun in his NCAA Tournament debut.
Plus, the Mountain West’s postseason track record outside of altitude is poor.
Midwest Region: Round of 32
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No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Houston
By: Ky McKeon
This matchup isn’t ideal for a man with futures on both Gonzaga and Houston (hi, it’s me). It’s also not ideal for either team.
Houston gets to face arguably the most underseeded team in bracket history, as the Zags — an eight-seed in the tournament — rank ninth nationally in KenPom.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga is forced to play one of the four best teams in the nation in the second round.
Neither seems particularly fair.
People will be quick to point out Gonzaga’s losses in non-conference play this year, but let’s not forget two of those games were in overtime, another was by three points and a fourth was by six. In those two overtime losses against Kentucky and West Virginia, Gonzaga held 18-point and 10-point leads.
To beat Houston, Gonzaga needs to compete on the glass, handle the ball and get out on 3s. The Zags rank 39th in defensive rebound percentage, fourth in offensive turnover rate and 15th in 3-point field goal percentage allowed.
They have an incendiary offense with a ton of weapons — though they do lack the elite outside shooting of past Zags squads.
Mark Few’s bid for a 10th straight Sweet 16 will be in jeopardy against the mighty Cougars, but he has the talent – and perhaps the motivation with the eight-seed disrespect – to topple Houston and “shock” the world.
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 3 Kentucky
By: Jim Root
I advocated against Illinois in the previous round due to matchup concerns, but if the Illini do advance, I like them to beat a high-variance Kentucky squad.
This would be a battle of two of the most extreme “drop coverage” schemes in the country, and the teams' statistical profiles defensively are extremely similar.
The difference: Illinois ranks 19th in 2-point percentage defense, per KenPom, while Kentucky lands 289th.
The Wildcats have significantly better shotmakers from the perimeter, but the drop takes catch-and-shoot chances away, so the difference will likely be having a superior pick-and-roll operator (Kasparas Jakucionis) to whoever spearheads Kentucky’s attack on this day.
Midwest Region: Sweet 16
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No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee
By: Matt Cox
Ignore the “It’s hard to beat a team three times” mantra that applies in this potential SEC showdown. The Wildcats swept the Vols in the regular season, once without Butler and again without Jaxson Robinson (who's officially shelved for the year).
The recipe for success was the Cats’ shooters loosening up Tennessee’s compact defensive structure, which forces opponents to chuck it from the cheap seats.
Robinson’s sharpshooting will be missed if this matchup comes to fruition, but Koby Brea, Ansley Almonor and Trent Noah are all capable of getting free from long distance.
Butler’s health could loom large, as well, if a deep tourney run ensues, especially pinned against the Vols’ renowned ballhawk Zakai Zeigler.
Midwest Region: Elite Eight
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Final Four
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No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke
By: Jim Root
Houston should've beaten Duke in the Sweet 16 last season, but it came up short largely due to an ankle injury to star point guard Jamal Shead.
Both teams are even better this season, but with four starters back from that Cougars squad, I’m buying the revenge angle.
Also, as great as Jon Scheyer has proven to be with the clipboard this season, I still trust Kelvin Sampson over him on the grandest stage in a tight X-and-O battle.
There are very few holes to poke in Duke’s statistical profile. However, many of the raw numbers have been given a major boost by the pitiful ACC, and a physical meat grinder game against Houston could reveal some cracks in the Blue Devils' armor.
Clemson simply outhustled Duke in the Tigers’ upset win at Littlejohn Coliseum (dominated the boards), and Houston is as maniacal as it gets in getting after loose balls.
Plus, the Cougars have multiple long, physical athletes to hurl at Cooper Flagg — JoJo Tugler, J’Wan Roberts and Terrance Arceneaux would all get cracks at the Duke star.
This could also finally be the game where a potential Maliq Brown absence bites the Blue Devils.
2025 National Championship
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No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Florida
By: Ky McKeon
I can’t believe I need to defend my selection of the Duke Blue Devils, the best team in the nation and by far the most talented.
Duke has the second-highest net rating in the history of KenPom’s site, which dates back to 1997 (’99 Duke is No. 1), meaning this is one of the best teams we’ve seen in the past two decades-plus.
Flagg is a matchup nightmare for anyone – even a Florida team that has a deep frontline. Flagg’s mobility and combination of shooting and passing makes him nearly unguardable.
But it’s not just Flagg. Kon Knueppel has been unbelievable as a second banana, burying shots from deep, and Tulane transfer Sion James has taken on a de facto point guard role, pacing Duke’s top-20 turnover rate.
The Blue Devils are one of the best rebounding, shooting and ball-handling teams on the offensive end. They're so balanced in their ability to beat you with multiple guys through multiple avenues.
Defensively, Duke is lockdown in the paint with its unmatched size and athleticism. The Blue Devils finish possessions on the glass and just consume opposing offenses with length.
Florida won’t get anything easy near the cup, and it’s worth noting that it's fallen to athletic, long teams like Missouri, Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee already this season.
Golden is a mastermind game planner, and his team is very balanced and talented in its own right – but Duke is simply all that and more.
Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin will face a perimeter that goes 6-foot-6, 6-foot-6, 6-foot-6 most of the time, which is a problem for them as they work to get off clean looks from deep or attack the hoop.
If this is the championship, the nation is in for a real treat. Duke would get it done narrowly and cap a dominant season.
