It can be difficult to filter out all the noise when dealing with a slate of 60+ college basketball games as we are tonight. Identifying statistically significant trends and extracting value is a tricky business that can even test the patience of seasoned bettors.
I've dug deep to find value in Campbell-Hampton, which is probably not on anyone's radar.
College Basketball Odds & Picks
Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Hampton at Campbell
- Spread: Campbell -6.5
- Over/Under: 150.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
The Hampton Pirates deal in extremes. Their all-conference combo of Ben Stanley and Jermaine Marrow attack the rim on nearly every possession, which accounts for Hampton’s 25 foul shot attempts per game (No. 4 nationally).
As reliant as they are on the charity stripe, they couldn’t be bothered with the three-point shot. Their 16.4 long range attempts per game is the 330th lowest total in all of Division I.
The extreme statistical swings don’t just end there. For all their success on offense, their defense is even more impressive — just not in the way that Hampton would like it to be. Here’s a rundown on the defensive metrics in which they rank 300th nationally or worse, or check in dead last in the Big South:
- Opp Effective FG %
- Opp Three Point %
- Opp Two Point %
- Opp FTA/FGA
- Points Per Possession
- Opp Assists/Turnover
- Opp Off Rebounds %
The Pirates can’t defend inside or outside the arc, they foul too much, they leave passing lanes wide open and they give offenses second chances on one in every three missed shots. Woof.
This combination must lead to some pretty stunning results when playing the total, right? To say that Hampton is an over bettor’s dream would be an understatement.
The over has hit in 12 of the Pirates’ last 13 games, including a 83-74 victory over Campbell last month in which the Pirates covered a 2-point spread and went over the closing number by eight points.
Campbell isn’t well suited to take advantage of all the defensive holes in the Pirates sails. They don’t usually get to the line that much, they’re a very poor rebounding team and they’re just mediocre from three-point land.
Should they be favored in the rematch? That’s debatable, given Campbell and Hampton’s recent play.
But to favor the Fighting Camels by seven points is simply too much value to pass up. When Campbell has gone off as a seven-point favorite or higher this season, the Camels are 1-2 ATS and dropped two games outright to High Point and Charleston Southern.
Stick with the high-scoring trend in Hampton games and take advantage of a generous line that appears to be inflated by at least three points.
Picks: Hampton +6.5 & Over 150.5
