Eli Hershkovich is an Action Network contributor and produces/hosts the You Better You Bet Podcast on RADIO.COM Sports.
Just three ranked college basketball teams are in action on Thursday night, as No. 21 Iowa travels to Indiana while No. 16 Colorado faces No. 17 for the second time this season.
Let’s break down where the value lies.
Thursday College Basketball Odds & Picks
Odds as of Thursday morning. In Indiana? Bet now at FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Iowa at Indiana
- Odds: Indiana -1.5 [Bet Now]
- Over/Under: 149
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: Big Ten Network
This line might appear off to the casual eye, as the Hoosiers have lost their last four games outright and against the spread. The Hawkeyes have gone 2-2 ATS over that stretch, including a 24-point home win vs. Nebraska on Saturday.
But expect an angry Indiana team to come out the gates and attack the glass after getting outrebounded in their past two games, and Archie Miller’s bunch has a size advantage to top it off.
The Hoosiers own the No. 1 defensive rebounding rate in Big Ten play, so it’s in position to control the tempo and push the pace.
Iowa’s attack thrives off getting offensive rebounds (38th-highest offensive rebounding rate) to create open looks from their 3-point gunners, along with getting to the line.
Luka Garza — a Naismith Player of the Year candidate — is at the center of its efforts, tallying the 65th-highest offensive rebounding rate individually. But if the Hoosiers revert back to their old ways in the rebounding department, Fran McCaffrey will have plenty to scream about.
The Hawkeyes biggest defensive weakness is defending inside the arc, so Indiana would be wise to get forwards Trayce Jackson-Davis and Joey Brunk going around the rim early. It’s no coincidence that Brunk hasn’t scored in double figures during the Hoosiers’ recent slide.
I’m considering this a buy-low spot for the Hoosiers.
Pick: Indiana -1.5 [Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Colorado at Oregon
- Odds: Oregon -4.5 vs. Colorado
- Over/Under: 139
- Time: 9:00 PM
- TV: ESPN
The Ducks would appear to be the play after dropping back-to-back road contests — outright and ATS — but the price is too steep at this point. After falling to the Buffs 74-65 on Jan. 2, the market has adjusted accordingly.
Oregon five-star freshman N’Faly Dante is expected to miss his sixth-straight game (knee injury), but his 6-foot-9 teammate Francis Okoro will return to the lineup after missing Saturday’s loss at Oregon State due to his father’s passing. Okoro isn’t much of a scorer (3.5 points per game), but his presence gives Dana Altman another big body off the bench.
Similar to Indiana, look for the Ducks to bounce back after struggling of late, but I’m aiming to get a better number live. Colorado should be able to find its perimeter shooting early (27th-highest 3-point clip) against an Oregon team yielding the 88th-highest 3-point scoring rate across Division I, which could put the home team in a hole.
The Buffs have also racked up the third-highest free-throw scoring rate in Pac-12 play, and the Ducks are letting up the fifth-highest scoring rate in that department.
But ultimately, expect Oregon point guard Payton Pritchard and Co. to take over by having success off the dribble, as the Buffs are letting the 95th-highest 2-point scoring rate in the country.
That should open up the Ducks’ perimeter attack, and they shot just 16.7% on 3s in their first meeting.
Pick: Oregon live -1 or better
