March is in full swing, and we're one step closer to the end of the regular season (Sunday) and the start of Champ Week.
Our staff is targeting three specific college basketball afternoon games for their best bets.
Read below for their top three afternoon college basketball best bets, picks and predictions for Friday, March 7.
(There's a parlay option below, even though that's not our official recommendation with these picks.)
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 2:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Gardner-Webb vs. High Point
Big South Quarterfinal
Does Gardner-Webb have a shot of hanging with the mighty High Point Panthers after blowing out USC Upstate on Wednesday?
I don’t think so.
Alan Huss has this offense cooking. The Panthers are an elite ball-screen and isolation offense, two things that the Bulldogs have no shot of defending.
Gardner-Webb is arguably the worst ball-screen coverage defense in the nation (1.04 PPP allowed, 362nd nationally, per Synergy), and the Bulldogs are far below average in isolation defense (.92 PPP allowed, 23rd percentile, per Synergy).
Unsurprisingly, the Panthers dropped over 90 points in both regular-season meetings.
On the other end of the court, the Runnin’ Bulldogs are an onomatopoeia, playing almost exclusively in transition.
Unfortunately for them, High Point is an elite transition-denial defense (.98 PPP allowed, 76th percentile on low-volume, per Synergy).
The Bulldogs scored just 30 points on 31 transition possessions across the two matchups (.97 PPP, per Synergy), finishing with 55 points in the first matchup and 67 in the second matchup.
I expect nothing different on either end of the court in the third meeting between these two.
EvanMiya projects the Panthers as 18-point neutral-court favorites, and I suspect this will be another convincing win for High Point, especially when factoring in the extra rest.
Pick: High Point -12.5
Southern Illinois vs. Drake
Missouri Valley Quarterfinal
Drake is vulnerable. The Bulldogs are 5-0 in overtime this year and have frequently shown signs of weakness. Also, they’re a high-variance team because of their ridiculously plodding pace.
That said, I’m unsure if Southern Illinois is the team that can take Drake down.
The only way to stop Drake is to stop Bennett Stirtz’s relentless middle pick-and-roll attacks, and the Salukis are a miserable ball-screen coverage defense, especially on the perimeter (.87 PPP allowed, 12th percentile, per Synergy).
Drake beat Southern Illinois by 10 in the first meeting partly because the Salukis couldn’t stop Stirtz, who scored 30 points, including 13 on 15 ball-screen sets.
That said, can the Salukis keep up on the other end of the court?
I think so.
Southern Illinois leverages its positional size to post up from everywhere on the court, while Drake’s defense is questionable, undersized and doesn’t grade out well defending opposing post-up sets (.90 PPP allowed, 34th percentile, per Synergy).
The Salukis managed 13 points on 11 post-up sets in the first head-to-head meeting (1.18 PPP, per Synergy), and I suspect they can replicate that performance in the rematch.
Betting the over in Drake games is a masochistic exercise. The Bulldogs play painfully slow and grind the game to a halt, and Arch Madness is known for its slow pace and painful shot making.
That said, the first game between these two went over the closing total (130 points after closing at 127.5), and I think that’s because the offenses match up well with the opposing defenses.
Meanwhile, Southern Illinois just played a wildly fast-paced game against Indiana State in which the Salukis operated very efficiently. Sure, Indiana State’s defense is pathetic, but four straight Southern Illinois games have gone over.
Despite all the historical trends telling me to do the opposite, I’ll go against my best judgement and bet this Arch Madness over.
Pick: Over 128.5 (Play to 129)
Presbyterian vs. Radford
We're getting a nice edge in this early Big South quarterfinal matchup.
