Top four seeds are currently having the best March Madness since 1979, when seeding began for the NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 to No. 4 seeds are 26-4 straight up and 21-9 against the spread (ATS), the best record in the modern day iteration of March Madness, according to our director of research Evan Abrams.
If you had blindly bet $100 on each No. 1 and No. 4 seed on the spread, you'd be up $1,008.
Before the tournament, one of the prevailing narratives centered around the disproportionate gulf between the mid major teams and top squads. So far, that storyline has held true.
And it's those sorts of narratives that the public loves — and they're profiting handedly because of it.
The betting public is having the best NCAA Tournament in modern history, too, on the backs of heavy favorites that have continually covered massive spreads.
"The betting public" constitutes a spread that is the most popular for a given game. For instance, for Yale vs. San Diego State, the Aztecs -5.5 was the betting public side, with roughly 67% of all bettors betting on the March Madness runners up last season to cover against No. 12 seeded Yale.
San Diego State won by 28 points in a blowout that was never close.
In yet another example, UConn received about 73% of all spread bets despite a lofty -13.5 spread vs. Northwestern in the Round of 32. The public was backing the No. 1 overall seed to do well — the types of teams the public loves, then gets burned on.
Not this season. UConn dismantled Northwestern with a wire-to-wire, 18-point win in a game whose score didn't reflect the actual domination at hand.
In these sorts of games, the public is 38-13 against the spread (75%) in the Round of 32 and Round of 64 for this season's March Madness. That's good for a $2,150 profit for a $100 per game bettor and an ROI of over 42%.
