Even in a year like 2025, where March has been mild instead of mad, the time between the second round and the Sweet 16 provides a nice opportunity to catch our breath and reassess the state of the teams remaining.
It is far too easy to let the previous week's results overtake our pre-tournament ideas of each team and muddy what we know about the coaches and programs involved.
I dug into some recent tournament data and results to take a wide-lens look at the eight games slated to be played Thursday and Friday night and the fortunes of the teams that will move forward to the Elite Eight.
Read on for 3 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 trends to watch.
Coaching Trends to Watch
While the players in each uniform come and go, especially these days, coaches tend to stick around in this sport long enough for fans, media members and bettors to formulate strong opinions.
With the power conference giants remaining this season, we have a deep crop of experienced coaches with tons of NCAA Tournament games under their belts.
One coach who may not receive the attention he deserves this week is Chris Beard. He's 12-6 in the Big Dance with four different programs.
Even more notably, Beard has dominated when given time to gameplan.
In NCAA Tournament games with three or more days rest (the first round, the Sweet 16 and the Final Four), Beard is 8-1 ATS, compared to just 4-5 when playing with a quick turnaround for the second game in a weekend.
His Rebels will have something up their sleeves for Tom Izzo and Michigan State.
On the other end of the spectrum is Tommy Lloyd from Arizona. He's just 2-7 ATS as a head coach in March Madness, notably going 1-5-1 in games with time to prepare. He has his work cut out for him on a date with Duke.
Lastly, this is a tough time of year for Tennessee's Rick Barnes.
Since 2009, he's just 6-18 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, especially struggling with a quick turnaround. When his team plays a tourney game on two days of rest, they are just 4-11 ATS in his career.
If the Vols move past Kentucky, that would be a trend to watch in the Elite Eight.
Rematch Round-Up
NCAA Tournament bracketing rules prevent teams from playing a rematch against a regular season opponent or a conference opponent in the tournament's first weekend. Typically, a conference is also not permitted to have two of the four top seeds in a region.
This season's SEC dominance has broken some of these rules, resulting in Barnes' Vols playing Kentucky for a third time Friday night after sweeping the Cats in two regular-season meetings.
The Elite Eight features two more chances for rematches, with the contentious Michigan-Michigan State rivalry possibly reconvening (Sparty swept the regular-season meetings) and the opportunity for a fourth date between Auburn and Ole Miss (the Tigers topped the Rebs twice in the regular season and dispatched Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament).
Because of the bracket's rules regarding conference foes and rematches, these situations are fairly rare and usually happen later in the tournament. In recent years, the lower-seeded team, often the underdog, has gone 10-6 ATS.
In many cases, this scenario pits two teams who split the season series, with the lower seed winning three of the last four such occurrences, like UNC knocking off Duke in the 2022 Final Four.
Twice in the last decade, we've seen teams try to upend the old adage that it's hard to top the same team three times.
In 2019, Kentucky swept Auburn, but the Tigers won in the tournament. In 2016, Carolina swept Syracuse in the regular season before beating the Orange a third time in March.
Post Buzzer Beater Blues?
A true game-winning buzzer-beater with no time remaining on the clock is rare.
Maryland's Derik Queen pulled it off with his stunner to send home Colorado State Sunday evening. Is there a letdown after that emotional rush?
It's a small sample size, but the last four teams to hit one at the buzzer to win are 1-3 in their next game and 1-3 ATS.
Take it back a little further, and those teams are just 2-7 SU in their next game, possibly suggesting a trend.
