The Troy Trojans take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, AR. Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on SEC Network+/ESPN+.
The Razorbacks are favored by 13 points on the spread with a moneyline of -950. The total is also set at 150 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. Arkansas predictions and college basketball picks for November 13, 2024.
Troy vs Arkansas Prediction
My Pick: Troy +14
My Troy vs Arkansas best bet is on the Trojans spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Troy vs Arkansas Odds, Lines, Pick
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +600 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
- Troy vs Arkansas spread: Arkansas -12.5
- Troy vs Arkansas over/under: 153.5 points
- Troy vs Arkansas moneyline: Arkansas -900
- Troy vs Arkansas best bet: Troy +14
My Troy vs Arkansas NCAAB Betting Preview
The key to stopping Arkansas is to keep the Hogs out of transition and to stop them in isolation.
They’ve been lethal in transition, scoring 55 points on 37 possessions across their first two games (1.49 PPP, 96th percentile). And they have three guards who can dribble-drive and cook the opposition — Boogie Fland, Adou Thiero and Johnell Davis have combined for 89 of the Razorbacks’ 143 points through 80 minutes played.
But things get ugly when you force them into the half-court, where they’ve scored 93 points on 117 half-court possessions (.79 PPP, 17th percentile).
It turns out that playing isolation hero-ball without spacing the floor — Arkansas has attempted 39 triples through two games, ranking 310th nationally — is not how you produce efficient offense.
Unfortunately for John Calipari and Co., Troy’s Scott Cross has posted three consecutive 20-win defenses by installing a disruptive, physical, nearly impenetrable perimeter defense.
Tayton Conerway and Marcus Rigsby Jr. are two of mid-majordum’s most active defensive guards. The two combined for 3.7 steals per game last season, allowing Cross to press at the 10th-highest rate nationally.
I’m uncertain if the Trojans will create many turnovers against Arkansas’ relatively sure-handed ball-handlers, but I expect Cross to press often and mess with the Razorbacks' offensive flow.
Additionally, Cross surrounds his backcourt with other versatile wing and forward defenders, like Thomas Dowd and Jackson Fields. The result is a swarming, versatile man-to-man scheme that switches everything and can easily neutralize isolation-heavy squads (.75 ISO PPP allowed last year, 73rd percentile).
Ultimately, I quite like this matchup for Troy’s defense.
I am more uncertain about how the Trojans score, though.
They score on extras. They turn defense into offense by turning turnovers in transition buckets while relentlessly crashing the offensive boards and living at the free-throw line.
The Hogs’ defense looks solid. They were excellent against Lipscomb and held Baylor’s dangerous spread pick-and-roll offense to a modest 72 points. They’ve allowed only 22 points on 28 transition possessions (.79 PPP, 81st percentile) while cleaning the boards and rarely fouling. That's a good matchup against Troy.
However, three ancillary details ultimately led me to take the points with Troy.
First, Jonas Aidoo is still dealing with a lower leg injury. He played only seven minutes against Lipscomb and nine against Baylor. Not having your dominant interior defensive anchor could hurt against a downhill-driving offense like Troy.
Second, continuity always plays in the early season, as teams with more chemistry and cohesion generally perform better against teams with less in November and December.
Troy returned over 70% of its minutes from last season, while Arkansas has a new coach breaking in an entirely new roster. One team is fully formed, while the other is still working out the kinks.
Third, Coach Cal is well-renowned for under-scouting and underperforming against low-major out-of-conference opponents. Since 2010, Cal-led teams are just 45-46 as non-conference double-digit favorites.
Our Action PRO projections make Arkansas a 9.5-point favorite on Wednesday, while Bart Torvik and Haslametrics make the Hogs only 11-point favorites.
KenPom and EvanMiya are closer to Arkansas -13, but I still show value with the Trojans.
Pick: Troy +14
