The Troy Trojans take on the Kentucky Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.
Kentucky is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here are my Troy vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
Troy vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Troy +11.5 (Play to +10)
My Troy vs Kentucky best bet is on the Trojans to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Troy vs Kentucky Odds, Spread, Pick
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | -700 |
- Troy vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -11.5
- Troy vs Kentucky over/under: 151.5 points
- Troy vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -700, Troy +500
- Troy vs Kentucky best bet: Troy +11.5 (Play to +10)
My Troy vs Kentucky NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
In the upcoming showdown between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Troy Trojans, all eyes are on the teams' contrasting styles and recent performances.
The Wildcats showed a less-than-stellar exit in the SEC Tournament. Their play was marred by a lack of energy and poor execution, especially when it came to dominating the boards.
Enter the Trojans, who are set to challenge the Wildcats, catching double digits as underdogs of 11 points.
But don’t let those odds fool you — Troy boasts an impressive unit that ranks fourth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Troy guard Tayton Conerway will be pivotal in managing the physical play against Kentucky's defense. He's the player to watch, as he should be able to make the jump up against better defenses.
What's interesting about the Trojans is their modern basketball approach — it's heavily analytical and aggressive in terms of Rim & 3. In fact, they're fifth in the nation when it comes to shots at the rim and from beyond the arc. This gives them a chance to capitalize on their possessions and secure second-chance points from offensive rebounds.
Defensively, they’re no slouch either. Troy’s half-court defense ranks fourth in the points per possession allowed, pressuring teams to earn every single point.
The big question ahead of this matchup is whether or not Kentucky can break through this formidable half-court defense and rectify the mistakes that led to its premature exit from the SEC Tournament.
With a penchant for past tournament woes, the Wildcats often struggle against teams that tactically outmaneuver them.
With that said, I’m leaning toward a Trojans cover.
The point spread is a tempting opportunity against a Kentucky team still haunted by recent tournament ghosts. My projections suggest a closer game around seven points, making anything over 10 points enticing.
