The UAB Blazers take on the Memphis Tigers in the AAC Tournament final. Tip-off is set for 3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here are my UAB vs. Memphis predictions and college basketball picks for March 16, 2025.
UAB vs Memphis Prediction
My Pick: UAB +4.5 (Play to +4)
My UAB vs Memphis best bet is on the Blazers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UAB vs Memphis Odds, Spread, Pick
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- UAB vs Memphis spread: Memphis -3.5
- UAB vs Memphis over/under: 158.5 points
- UAB vs Memphis moneyline: Memphis -170, UAB +145
- UAB vs Memphis best bet: UAB +4.5 (Play to +4)
My UAB vs Memphis AAC Tournament Final Betting Preview
Bubble teams nationwide will root heavily for Penny Hardaway's squad on Selection Sunday. If the Tigers fall short and UAB wins the title, it'll erase one bubble team from the tournament.
Memphis players have come close to burning their hands after playing with fire countless times during AAC play. The Tigers barely snuck past Wichita State and Tulane in the conference tournament.
This time, it'll likely come shorthanded after starting guard Tyrese Hunter suffered an ankle injury.
If Hunter is out, Memphis will likely start Baraka Okojie for extra ball-handling. That's a major downgrade from Hunter, who's experienced and shoots over 40% from deep.
The Tigers will rely even more on PJ Haggerty than they already do. He's an All-American for a reason, and he scored 42 points against Wichita State. However, UAB will make it a point to slow him down.
I do think Memphis will eventually drop a close game. I mean, is playing down to inferior competition really sustainable? Typically not.
Despite the Tigers being a stone-cold lock, Memphis sits just 51st in KenPom, which is worse than almost all bubble teams.
UAB prides itself on crashing the offensive glass, grabbing 38% of its misses. Conversely, Memphis struggles to finish possessions on the glass, often due to pressuring the ball. UAB doesn't turn it over (13%), so the Tigers' pressure won't provide much.
UAB forward Yaxel Lendeborg had two of his worst games of the year against the Tigers. He went 5-of-15 and 4-of-10 from the field in their two matchups this season. Some of that could be the toughness of the Tigers defense, but he just seemed flustered in both meetings.
The versatile 6-foot-9 big was dominant in the first two ACC Tournament games, though, which could help get him locked in.
Lendeborg also has to stay out of foul trouble against Dain Dainja. He put the entire Tulane interior in the "Dainja Zone" in the semifinals, and UAB can't afford Lendeborg being his next victim.
The motivation factor also has to mean something. If UAB loses this game, it'll be heading home, while Memphis doesn't gain much from winning and doesn't lose much for losing.
The Blazers have a dominant offense, ranking 25th in Bart Torvik's offensive efficiency since Feb. 1. However, they do sit 256th in defensive efficiency. UAB has to defend a bit better in this matchup after allowing 88 points and 100 points to Memphis earlier this season.
The number opened at Memphis -5.5 and dropped to -4.5, likely due to Hunter's injury. I think he's so important to Memphis for myriad reasons, notably his on-ball defensive pressure and shooting.
I can't see Memphis covering against a scalding hot Blazers team without him. Plus, Memphis loves winning games by short margins. Why not one more for the road?
