The UC San Diego Tritons take on the Michigan Wolverines in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on TBS.
Michigan is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 143 points.
Here are my UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 20, 2025.
UC San Diego vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: UC San Diego +2.5
My UC San Diego vs Michigan best bet is on the Tritons spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UC San Diego vs Michigan Odds, Lines
| UC San Diego Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -105 | 143 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -115 | 143 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- UC San Diego vs Michigan spread: Michigan -2
- UC San Diego vs Michigan over/under: 143 points
- UC San Diego vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -140, UCSD +120
- UC San Diego vs Michigan best bet: UC San Diego +2.5
My UC San Diego vs Michigan NCAAB Betting Preview
I'm hearing lots of upset chatter surrounding UC San Diego, but I'm not afraid of a trendy mid-major. Some go down in flames and some advance. I just like this particular matchup for the Tritons, who I've loved all season. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now.
Plus, unlike a few other games I like on Thursday where I'm concerned about the travel situation (Yale, VCU), that angle could potentially work in UCSD's favor — Michigan played three games in three days over the weekend and is now heading to Denver to play in altitude.
Legs could be an issue for a Michigan team without much depth, and I do think it'll have to hit 3s in this particular matchup (more on that in a bit). A few weeks back, Michigan found itself in a similar situation against Illinois and lost by 20.
The most glaring mismatch in this game is the turnover margin. The Tritons excel in this area, which gives them a very positive shot volume profile — along with their ability to defend without fouling and gang rebound on the defensive end.
On the season, UC San Diego ranks in the top-10 nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover rates. That could be problematic for a Michigan offense with major turnover issues (328th nationally).
Now, one might also point to Michigan's size as a major asset in this particular game, as the Wolverines have a pair of seven footers who run a very unique offense under Dusty May.
UC San Diego certainly doesn't possess any elite interior size. However, despite that lack of height inside, the Tritons still ranked in the top-75 nationally in both Near Proximity Attempt Rate and Percentage Allowed, per Haslametrics.
They also ranked in the ninth percentile in rim frequency and in the 93rd percentile in rim efficiency, per Synergy.
This was all possible due to their defensive structure, which will mix in some zone (with man principles) and extreme help across the board. They make life very difficult for big men in the paint and did face a UC Irvine team three times that features a seven-footer inside.
In a road victory at Utah State earlier this season, they essentially rendered the Aggies' big men completely useless.
They also get into passing lanes and anticipate ball movement as well as any team in the country, which could spell trouble for a Michigan team that can get very loose with the rock.
Will Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf still get their fair share of points? Absolutely, especially off some second-chance opportunities, but I don't believe their sheer size will dominate the UCSD defense.
As a result of this defensive structure, the Tritons do allow plenty of 3-point attempts, so Michigan will have to hit its outside jumpers. That's been a bit of a struggle in 2025 for the Wolverines, and now fatigue could become a bit of a factor.
If the Wolverines are hot from the outside and can limit the turnovers to a respectable level, they'll have a great shot of winning this game, especially if UCSD has an off shooting night.
I actually believe Wolf's passing ability will be the key to this game for the Michigan offense. Can the former Yale transfer find the open shooters on the perimeter without coughing it up too frequently? That's certainly something to watch closely throughout.
For what it's worth, the Tritons attempt 3s at the highest rate of any team in the tournament, led by sharpshooter Tyler McGhie, who's capable of pouring in six or seven in a game.
The UCSD offense can also beat you in a multitude of ways with Niwa Tait-Jones running the show as just an all-around nightmare matchup. He sees the floor as well as any player I've watched in college basketball this season.
And don't sleep on Hayden Gray, who not only leads the nation in steal rate, but also has shot 42.0% from beyond the arc this season.
Ultimately, I think this is more of a coin flip game, so I show value on the Tritons, who have flummoxed oddsmakers all season as the best team in the country against the spread.
I actually believe this will come down to which team can shoot better from the outside. I trust the Tritons more in that department, especially as the more well-rested team in altitude (which they already have familiarity with due to that aforementioned win at Utah State). The Wolverines can't say the same.
My one concern is potential 3-point shooting regression hitting all at once in favor of the Wolverines. Since February 1, Michigan has made just 27.5% of its 3-point attempts after connecting on 37% through the end of January.
Meanwhile, UCSD has held opponents to just 29.0% 3-point shooting since the beginning of February — down from 35.6% over the first three months of the season.
That's the largest delta among all tournament teams. Additionally, the Tritons have made 39.9% of their triples over that period after only connecting on 34.2% through the end of January.
Does it all come crashing down in a one-and-done scenario for a team that shoots (eighth in attempt rate) and allows (328th) a high volume of 3-pointers.
That's always a possibility, but I'll be going down with the ship if that happens with a team that should finish with a significant turnover edge when it's all said and done.
