The UCF Knights take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, AZ. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Arizona is favored by 15 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here are my UCF vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
UCF vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -14.5 (Play to -16)
My UCF vs Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
UCF vs Arizona Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -110 | 157.5 -108 / -112 | +650 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -110 | 157.5 -108 / -112 | -1000 |
- UCF vs Arizona spread: Arizona -15
- UCF vs Arizona over/under: 157.5 points
- UCF vs Arizona moneyline: Arizona -1000, UCF +650
- UCF vs Arizona best bet: Arizona -14.5 (Play to -16)
Spread
I'm laying the big number with the Wildcats in a good schematic matchup.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Arizona -14.5 (Play to -16)
UCF vs Arizona College Basketball Betting Preview
I admittedly haven’t watched much of UCF this year, but I felt strange about the roster construction in the preseason.
Johnny Dawkins' roster is over-reliant on mid-major transfer talent, and it seems like the frontcourt combination of freshman Moustapha Thiam, George Mason transfer Keyshawn Hall and Syracuse transfer Benny Williams is struggling on the defensive end.
UCF allows 36 paint points per game (15th percentile) and can’t rebound anything (316th nationally in defensive rebounding rate), so the Knights also allow 14 second-chance points per game (fourth percentile).
That’s terrible news against Arizona, an up-tempo rim-reliant offense (42 paint points per game, 99th percentile) that pulverizes the offensive glass (seventh in offensive rebounding rate), averaging a whopping 15 second-chance points per game (96th percentile).
The way to beat the Wildcats is to slow down their transition-heavy attack and turn them into jump shooters.
I know that UCF won’t be able to keep them away from the rim, and I’m doubtful the Knights' below-average transition-denial defense (10 fast-break points per game allowed, 44th percentile) will keep this game in the half-court.
On the other end of the court, UCF is playing a ton of transition- and isolation-based hero ball, with the trio of Hall, Darius Johnson and Jordan Ivy-Curry averaging nearly 45 points per game.
However, the Knights have been atrocious in transition on a per-possession basis (.88 PPP, second percentile), which might hurt against Arizona’s above-average transition-denial defense (nine fast-break points per game allowed, 60th percentile).
Arizona will funnel opponents into ball-screen and isolation creation, so the Knights can run their offense. But the Wildcats are an above-average isolation defense (.67 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), so I’m uncertain how comfortable UCF will be.
Ultimately, Arizona has the schematic advantages on both ends of the court. Of course, that’s why the ‘Cats are laying 15.
But I don’t think the number has soared out of control, and Arizona tends to beat down these “lesser” teams, especially ones undermanned or undersized in the frontcourt.
For example, the Wildcats beat Davidson by 33 and Samford by 28, two teams relatively close to UCF in KenPom ranking and rim-protection prowess.
For what it’s worth, Arizona doesn’t have a single KenPom sub-50 loss this year.
Meanwhile, UCF has managed to dominate KenPom sub-100 competition, but has struggled more against upper-echelon teams. The Knights have two excellent wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech, but the latter was fueled by shooting variance (UCF shot 10-for-23 from 3 while TTU shot 3-for-16).
At the same time, they looked dreadful in a 16-point loss to Wisconsin, a seven-point triple-overtime loss to LSU and a 51-point loss to Kansas at home last week — UCF is no stranger to getting blown out.
Also, it’s much easier to trust the Wildcats when Caleb Love plays well.
He was atrocious in the early season, which correlated with Arizona losing six of eight between mid-November and mid-December.
But he’s turned it back on lately, averaging over 20 points per game on 47%/34%/84% shooting splits during this five-game winning streak. His outside scoring ability is crucial for a squad that needs spacing to open up lanes for rim attack.
Combine Love’s current form with UCF’s complete inability to counter Arizona’s up-tempo rim attack, and I’m willing to lay the monster number with the ‘Cats. Haslametrics, Bart Torvik and EvanMiya all project them as 18-to-20-point home favorites, so I think anything south of -16 is worth a wager.
