The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the UCLA Bruins in Inglewood, CA. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on FOX.
Gonzaga is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Gonzaga vs. UCLA predictions and college basketball picks for December 28, 2024.
Gonzaga vs UCLA Prediction
My Pick: Gonzaga -4 (Play to -5)
My Gonzaga vs UCLA best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Gonzaga vs UCLA Odds, Lines
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | -185 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | +155 |
- Gonzaga vs UCLA spread: Gonzaga -4
- Gonzaga vs UCLA over/under: 148 points
- Gonzaga vs UCLA moneyline: Gonzaga -185, UCLA +155
- Gonzaga vs UCLA best bet: Gonzaga -4 (Play to -5)
My Gonzaga vs UCLA College Basketball Betting Preview
Gonzaga Basketball
One thing remains consistent about Mark Few-coached teams — they boast an elite offense with an elite point guard.
That rings true with this iteration, as well.
Ryan Nembhard is the best floor general in college hoops, as he's posting an elite 10.2 assists to just 2.2 turnovers. He’s the perfect ingredient to counteract the Bruins’ defensive pressure and ability to force turnovers.
If you allow the Bruins to get comfortable defensively and turn teams over, then it's a recipe for disaster, so that's a major plus for Gonzaga.
Still, Gonzaga lacks a true secondary ball-handler to offset the pressure on Nembhard. Nolan Hickman is solid in his role — a perimeter marksmen benefitting from Nembhard’s playmaking — but he isn't that secondary guy.
The one savior is Khalif Battle, who's probably the most explosive player on the Bulldogs' roster. The 6-foot-5 veteran guard has the ability to generate easy points by drawing fouls.
But he doesn’t get the ball enough. The Zags need to feed Battle — he scored 30+ points multiple times in the SEC last year — and he needs to be a more consistent presence in the Zags' offensive formula.
Graham Ike is the go-to scorer for Gonzaga, posting 15.6 points in just 18 minutes a night. It's very strange that Ike plays fewer than 20 minutes, but he's picked up four fouls in five of his past six games. It's tough to get into a consistent offensive flow if opposing teams attack and pin fouls on the Zags' go-to scorer.
His worst game of the year came in just 12 minutes against UConn, in which he picked up four fouls and had three points.
What will make this game different from each of Gonzaga's three losses? I see the Bulldogs finding some success containing UCLA's interior scoring, which is more of a reflection of my distrust of UCLA's offense than Gonzaga's defense.
Looking back, West Virginia shot 53.6% from 2 in the win over the Zags, Kentucky shot 54% and UConn shot 63%.
UCLA is a fairly mediocre offense for a top-20 team in KenPom, and it all comes down to staying down on Tyler Bilodeau and avoiding falling for his wicked shot fakes.
UCLA Basketball
UCLA has vengeance on its minds after blowing a double-digit lead to North Carolina.
Sadly for the Bruins, their opponent is Gonzaga, which poses a pretty tough threat to avoid a multi-game losing streak.
UCLA hasn’t faced a very daunting schedule, which adds some context to its 10-2 record. The road win over Oregon (which was an early league game) holds a lot of weight, but the only notable win during the non-conference came against a mediocre Arizona team.
Of all of the UCLA returnees and newcomers via the portal, I wasn’t sure if it had a true go-to guy. And it’s a lot easier to win a conference title with a go-to guy.
Bilodeau has developed into a star for the Bruins, though, flashing a versatile attack with his ability to score on slower bigs and shoot from 3. He’s averaging 15.1 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on 51% shooting and 42% from 3. It’s been a sensational start for him, as he even scored 26 in the loss to UNC.
The Bruins' offense is very questionable besides Bilodeau. They rank No. 60 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency, while ranking No. 91 in 2-point field goal percentage and No. 80 in 3-point field goal percentage.
I’m fully convinced the best version of UCLA contains Sebastian Mack and Dylan Andrews starting. Mack scored 22 points versus UNC, but was benched by Mick Cronin in the prior game, playing just three minutes.
Meanwhile, Andrews is a big-time shooter, which not many UCLA guards can say. That’s the proper combination for the Bruins to roll with, and I don’t know what value Skyy Clark provides to the lineup.
Based on the moves Cronin made in the portal, it was clear he wanted to revert to a defensive-first style. That's the style he used to win plenty of games with at Cincinnati and Murray State, but having a pair of NBA picks in Westwood led to a shift in philosophy.
Now, with versatile forwards Kobe Johnson and Eric Dailey Jr. leading the charge, the Bruins' defense ranks No. 4 in defensive efficiency with the best turnover rate (26.4%) in America.
Gonzaga vs. UCLA Betting Analysis
I have some questions about Gonzaga, but I have even more questions about UCLA.
Gonzaga won't turn the ball over, and it wants to run and score 80+ points. So, I'll roll with Gonzaga -4.5 to -5.
Scoring hasn't come easily in any of UCLA's three wins against top-105 foes, scoring fewer than 75 points in each game and fewer than 70 in two of the three.
This matchup just feels like a rough schematic matchup, as UCLA ranks in the 15th percentile in transition defense (per Synergy).
Conversely, 198 of Gonzaga's offensive possessions came in transition.
