The UCLA Bruins take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln, NE. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on FOX.
Nebraska is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -142. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here are my UCLA vs. Nebraska predictions and college basketball picks for January 4, 2025.
UCLA vs Nebraska Prediction
My Pick: Under 134.5 or Better
My UCLA vs Nebraska best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UCLA vs Nebraska Odds, Spread, Pick
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 132.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 132.5 -110 / -110 | -142 |
- UCLA vs Nebraska spread: Nebraska -2.5
- UCLA vs Nebraska over/under: 132.5 points
- UCLA vs Nebraska moneyline: Nebraska -142, UCLA +120
- UCLA vs Nebraska best bet: Under 134.5 or Better
My UCLA vs Nebraska College Basketball Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Nebraska.
The Bruins will make their first trip eastward, as they’ve played every game so far west of the Rockies. I'd imagine Big Ten play won’t be friendly to these West Coast squads — it wasn’t in football.
Additionally, I think UCLA is due for a letdown after squeaking past Gonzaga last time out. The Bruins could also be in for some game-to-game regression after canning 12-of-24 (50%) triples, while the Zags shot 7-for-24 (29%).
It’s also a tough schematic matchup for UCLA. The Bruins love to play through Tyler Bilodeau in the post, but Nebraska runs a compact defense that’s elite in post-denial (one post-up PPG allowed, second nationally).
Instead, you typically have to beat Nebraska over the top, and I’m not entirely confident the Bruins can do that. They’re due for a slight bit of negative shooting regression, as ShotQuality projects they’re shooting about 3% over expectation based on the “quality” of attempts taken (37% compared to 34%).
However, I’m not overly confident the Cornhuskers will score at will on Saturday. UCLA’s half-court set defense is the nation’s best (.70 PPP allowed).
Nebraska runs an inside-out offense predicated on dribble handoffs and off-ball screening sets for Brice Williams and Connor Essegian. The duo is shooting 43% from deep.
However, UCLA has allowed 36 points on 58 handoff and off-screen sets this year, which is suitable for a meager .62 PPP on low volume.
The Bruins hard-hedge everything, which typically allows a high volume of open jumpers, and that’s where Nebraska can win the game.
Still, UCLA’s aggressive press coverage also forces turnovers at the nation’s highest rate (27%). Given that the Huskers rank sub-150th in offensive turnover rate (17%), I’m not confident that Nebraska can crisply move the ball to open shooters.
Ultimately, I believe UCLA’s defense will travel, but I’m unsure if its offense will, especially in a brutal matchup.
UCLA games are 9-4 to the under this season, while Nebraska games are 8-5. I’ll bank on more of the same on Saturday, especially when the projection market makes this total far lower than the opening number — KenPom projects 133 points, Bart Torvik projects 131 and Haslametrics projects 130.
