UCLA vs Oregon State Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 128.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
Let's head out to Gill Coliseum in Corvallis, Oregon where the Oregon State Beavers will host the UCLA Bruins on Thursday, Dec. 28. This is the first conference game of the season for both of these teams, but this matchup means a lot more to the Bruins.
Mick Cronin's Bruins were never expected to replicate the success of the past few seasons, but no one expected them to have a 5-6 record. Cronin's team needs a win in the worst way, and they may pull out all of the stops in order to do so.
The Beavers are off to an 8-3 start and should have a raucous home crowd.
UCLA Bruins
So far, the Bruins offense has been extremely inept and continues to be the reason they lose close contests.
They've been one of the worst offensive teams in the country thus far, ranking 321st in Effective FG% (45.2%) as a team as they are 150th in Adjusted Offensive Rating, per Kenpom. The Bruins are 360th in Rim and 3-point Attempt Rate, which suggests that they have been settling for too many low-value long 2-point attempts.
However, despite their anemic offensive performance thus far, there is reason to be optimistic. First, ShotQuality believes there is some serious positive regression coming for this squad.
Their defense has been excellent as it ranks 38th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even if the offense only performs slightly better, expect a lot more wins the rest of the way.
I'm still waiting for freshman sensation Sebastian Mack to get going on a consistent basis, as the star guard is only shooting 41% from inside the arc. He does have the range to make 3s consistently, but he's only attempted 20 shots from beyond the arc.
I do have some faith that the Bruins can turn around their offense in this game. The Beavs foul often, and the Bruins do a decent job at earning trips to the charity stripe.
Despite being a decent defensive team, the Beavs do not crash the boards particularly well, which is an area in which the Bruins thrive as they grab 31.7% of their misses. It's not too outlandish to think this offense can get out of its funk by capitalizing on second-scoring chances.
Regardless, I’d expect a typically strong defensive effort here that should, at a bare minimum, keep the Bruins alive deep into this game. This would be excellent timing for Cronin's underachieving offense to turn things around.
Oregon State Beavers
It’s been a nice 8-3 start to the season for the Beavs, but this is a team I had circled as a fade candidate when conference play began because all of their wins have been against teams ranked 170th or worse according to KenPom.
That means the Beavs have yet to beat an opponent in the top half of the country.
Oregon State is oddly similar to UCLA in terms of its strengths. This is a defensive-minded team that has really struggled on offense.
I have a lot of concerns heading into this matchup because of this, especially considering the Bruins are much sounder on defense and on the glass on both ends.
The Beavs are 294th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as they are notably shooting at a horrific 30% clip from deep. Against a good defensive team, this isn’t the matchup for them to get right offensively.
Let’s face it folks, the Beavs are projected to win four more games the rest of the season according to KenPom. This isn’t exactly a well-rounded basketball team, and a lot of college basketball casuals will look at their 8-3 record and jump all over them against the struggling Bruins.
UCLA vs. Oregon State
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a great get-right spot for the Bruins. This line may dip a bit before tip if the public backs the Beavs as I expect, so it’s probably best to wait as long as you can.
I just don’t see how the Beavs will generate offense against this Bruins defense, and the Beavs' inability to rebound has me seriously concerned. Oregon State also fouls a ton, and I could see the Bruins being extra aggressive on offense in order to generate trips to the charity stripe.
It’s never fun laying points on the road with a struggling offense, but the fact the Bruins opened as six-point favorites gives me even more confidence. If the line starts to steam throughout the day, I’d advise buying right away so you don’t have to worry about laying extra points with this offense.
A 5-6 team as six-point road favorites against an 8-3 team? It seems like the market already knows this Beavs team is a paper tiger.
