The UCLA Bruins take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, IN. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Purdue is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -238. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here are my UCLA vs. Purdue predictions and college basketball picks for February 28, 2025.
UCLA vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Purdue -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
My UCLA vs Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UCLA vs Purdue Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 140.5 -108 / -112 | +195 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 140.5 -108 / -112 | -238 |
- UCLA vs Purdue spread: Purdue -5.5
- UCLA vs Purdue over/under: 140.5 points
- UCLA vs Purdue moneyline: Purdue -238, UCLA +195
- UCLA vs Purdue best bet: Purdue -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
Spread
I like Purdue on the spread up to -6.5.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Purdue -4.5 (Play to -6.5)
UCLA vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
One of the teams that previously looked like a conference contender but is now faltering is the Purdue Boilermakers. They've dropped four straight games, and the most recent one came by 15 to Indiana.
Meanwhile, their opponent — UCLA — has faced ups and downs this season and is 2-2 in its last four games, including a disastrous loss to Minnesota in L.A.
So, why is Purdue the spot here?
I'll preface this by saying I have a lot of concerns about Purdue, but after losing four straight games, it presents a pretty strong buy-low spot. We're only two weeks removed from Purdue being a top-10 team in KenPom and people tabbing it as a legitimate Final Four contender.
First of all, after a lengthy losing skid, I'd expect the Mackey Arena crowd to bring the juice.
Moreover, Purdue has the two best players on the floor, including Braden Smith, the nation's top point guard. However, he's scored less than 10 points in three of his past five games.
He's more of a floor general than a scorer, but Purdue can't afford an off shooting night from Smith here.
The Boilermakers need Smith to start scoring again to help Trey Kaufman-Renn. Beating Purdue is a lot tougher when Smith and TKR combine for 45-50 points, as nobody else outside of that pair and Fletcher Loyer score much.
For all Purdue's warts, it remains an elite offensive unit. It ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and in the top 35 in 2-point and 3-point percentages.
On the bad side, a major issue for Purdue during this recent run is its inability to stop teams from scoring inside, as opponents shoot 56% from 2 versus the Boilers. Each of Purdue's last three opponents shot 68% or better from inside the arc, including 90% from Wisconsin.
I don't think UCLA can dominate Purdue like that. The Bruins' offense is just 51st in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric, and they aren't the most effective at scoring inside the arc either, shooting 52% from 2.
Sure, they have size and options with Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, but interior scoring isn't UCLA's strength.
Defense and forcing turnovers are UCLA's strengths. The Bruins' defense is pretty formidable, sitting 15th in defensive efficiency. They thrive at forcing giveaways, boasting a 23% turnover rate.
UCLA can't simply rely on turnovers to beat Purdue, though. The Boilermakers can counteract UCLA's elite turnover rate with a 16% offensive turnover rate. Smith is cautious with the ball and won't have problems against UCLA's pressure.
I also don't really trust UCLA's guards in a tough road environment. The Bruins rely on Sebastian Mack, Dylan Andrews and Skyy Clark, but none are very consistent.
Mack is probably the best of the bunch, but Purdue holds the clear backcourt advantage.
Heading back home to one of the top home court advantages in the Big Ten means it's all up from here for Purdue.
