Updated Michigan State vs. UCLA Odds, Prediction For NCAA Tournament First Four Play-In Game (March 18)

#11 Michigan State vs. #11 UCLA State Odds

How Michigan State & UCLA Match Up

Instant Analysis for Michigan State-UCLA

This is definitely the most high-profile matchup in First Four history with the Spartans and Bruins both surviving the bubble to qualify for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State has needed to maintain an even stronger defensive presence than normal as a result of an offense that ranked second-worst in Big Ten Conference play.

The Bruins are actually a much better offensive team, with a defense that surprisingly ranked just ninth-best within the Pac-12. The Spartans have the better resume with recent wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan.

UCLA has lost its last four games, but that did include a one-point loss at home to talent-rich USC. Both teams have the talent, experience, and coaching acumen to give No. 6 seed BYU a tough battle in the next matchup. — Mike Randle

What To Know About Michigan State

The Spartans' late stretch of quadrant 1 victories against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan were enough to earn Tom Izzo another trip to the dance. Michigan State would be a tough draw for a team that relies on 3-point shooting: The Spartans are 56th in 3-point defense, but struggle to generate takeaways.

A rank of 37th in defensive blocks highlights a roster that is top-35 in average height. The issues for the Spartans are terrible ranks in defensive turnovers and free throw rate. Any potential opponent of Michigan State will have the advantage with solid ball security and a high rate of getting to the charity stripe.

The defensive metrics are trending upward for Sparty, but the offense still seems to be a complete work in progress. Rocket Watts and Joey Hauser both have had disappointing seasons but flashed some signs of life late in the year. If they can capture that form for a game or two in the tournament, Michigan State could make a Sweet 16 run, but that's probably the realistic ceiling. — Collin Wilson

What To Know About UCLA

UCLA snuck into the NCAA Tournament on the back of a very efficient offense that ranks 24th in the country, according to KenPom.

The Bruins slow the game down and look for the best shot, as evidence of their 335th-ranked tempo. They rank inside the top 50 in 3-point-shooting percentage this season, a rate that would be even better if guard Chris Smith didn’t tear his ACL in a New Year’s Eve game against Utah.

The Bruins are fortunate to have gotten into the tournament, having lost their final four games of the season. They might not be a pick to make a run in the Big Dance. — Matt Trebby