UConn Beats San Diego State: Who Profited? Who Won the Most?

UConn Beats San Diego State: Who Profited? Who Won the Most? article feature image
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Amid a midseason slump in which UConn went 2-6, the Huskies' national championship odds dipped as low as 22-1.

Before one of those losses in January, a bettor in Michigan ripped $15,000 on the Huskies to win the NCAA Tournament at 20-1.

That pick didn't look great pre-tournament. After being grouped in a side of the bracket with Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga, the Huskies entered the tournament as long as 25-1 underdogs.

Those odds were worse than eight other teams and tied with two others — including Purdue and Arizona, which failed to reach the Round of 32.

And yet, here's UConn, lifting up its fifth national title since 1999 — more over that timeframe than Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Kansas and Indiana.

That bettor in Michigan — if they didn't hedge at all along the way — won $500,000 off of that ticket on Monday night, after a beatdown of San Diego State.

Some others profited without having to sweat it out for three months. But it took a lot more upfront capital.

One bettor at FanDuel slapped $300,000 on UConn's moneyline at about -350 odds. That bettor won about $85,000.

Another put down $150,000 to win about $45,000.

UConn had been among six teams that my colleague Ryan Collinsworth targeted in the pre-tournament futures markets based on advanced metrics.

The last three national champions had an:

  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
  • Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.

Only six teams fulfilled those metrics: Houston (+550), Alabama (+750), Purdue (+1200), UCLA (+1400), Texas (+1600) and, lastly, UConn (+2300).

The Huskies are the fifth-longest pre-tournament team to win it all. Only ones with worse odds were: 2014 UConn (+10000), 1985 Villanova (+3500), 2011 UConn (+2500) and 1983 N.C. State (+2500).

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About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

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