The Connecticut Huskies take on the Marquette Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Marquette is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my UConn vs. Marquette predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
UConn vs Marquette Prediction
My Pick: UConn +6.5 or Better
My UConn vs Marquette best bet is on the Huskies spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs Marquette Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 143.5 -108 / -112 | +240 |
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 143.5 -108/ -112 | -298 |
- UConn vs Marquette spread: Marquette -6.5
- UConn vs Marquette over/under: 143.5 points
- UConn vs Marquette moneyline: Marquette -298, UConn +240
- UConn vs Marquette best bet: UConn +6.5 or Better
Spread
I like UConn to cover +6.5 or less.
Moneyline
The UConn moneyline at +240 is a smart bet, especially if star Liam McNeeley is cleared to play.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: UConn +6.5 or Better
UConn vs Marquette College Basketball Betting Preview
UConn Basketball
UConn has hit hard times since losing McNeeley to a high ankle sprain in early January. The Huskies are 4-3 in that span, with most of those wins scarier than they should've been. Without McNeeley, UConn is 1-6 ATS, with an overtime win over Butler, a one-possession win over Providence and a halftime deficit to lowly DePaul.
With McNeeley, prior to December 31, Connecticut ranked third nationally in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
In the time without McNeeley, UConn's offense dropped to 36th. Dan Hurley's offense is built on detailed set plays, but those sets clearly miss UConn's most dynamic playmaker. It's affected how the Huskies attack, resulting in five fewer 3-point attempts per game.
The good news is that McNeeley is set to return in the near future. Hurley's original timetables for the injury indicated a late January re-start. McNeeley is back at practice, ramping up for gameplay, yet UConn won't commit to when he'll be back and admits the recovery has taken longer than intended.
His presence is needed, with the toughest part of the UConn schedule upon us. Connecticut is set to face the top three teams in the Big East — by KenPom or the conference standings — with Marquette, St. John's and Creighton up next.
Two of those games, including this date in Milwaukee, are on the road.
Marquette Basketball
Shaka Smart has Marquette poised for another run at the Big East title and a meaningful March.
The Golden Eagles rank in the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, with the ability to spark a run on either end of the floor.
Most notably, this is a team built to win in transition. Turnovers are the key stat in any Marquette game. The Golden Eagles are the least turnover-prone team in college basketball on the offensive end and the sixth-best at forcing turnovers defensively.
Marquette is 18-1 when winning the turnover margin this season and 0-2 when losing it.
Those turnovers are more than just game-changing plays individually. Yes, a steal leads to a good look on the offensive end, and avoiding turnovers stifles transition baskets headed toward Marquette's defensive end.
The overall effect of this disparity, however, is the real difference-maker.
By avoiding their own turnovers and forcing so many from opponents, Marquette earns more possessions and chances to score. Marquette has taken fewer field goal attempts than its opponent just once this season, a loss to Dayton (also one of the games in which the Golden Eagles lost the turnover battle).
College basketball can be so dependent on shooting variance, yet Smart's team gives itself some wiggle room. A cold shooting night isn't as impactful when you're taking more shots than your opponent.
Just anecdotally, it's so valuable in a close game to know that your team is built to get a good look at a shot or create defensive pressure when a stop is needed.
UConn vs. Marquette Betting Analysis
I like Connecticut to cover for three reasons.
First, there's a shot McNeeley gets cleared and plays. His presence would swing this line by at least a few points and vault UConn back into the top tier of the Big East.
Even if he stays sidelined, Marquette's offensive tendencies play into UConn's defensive game plan. Hurley's Huskies have cut off the 3-point line, allowing just 32.6% of opponent field goal attempts to come from long range (11th-lowest in D-I).
UConn runs shooters off the arc, forcing them to penetrate into the paint, where a formidable defense waits. Samson Johnson is an elite rim protector, and Tarris Reed Jr. is also excellent at the point of attack.
No team in America blocks a higher rate of shots than UConn. This comes at the expense of some fouls (much to Hurley's loud protests), as UConn ranks in the bottom 25 of free throws allowed and free throw rate allowed.
Marquette, though, doesn't attack the paint for contact in that way. The Golden Eagles take a ton of 3s and have the second-lowest free throw rate in the Big East.
Lastly, Marquette's defense, while excellent, has benefitted from some shooting luck. The Golden Eagles' last four opponents have hit just 24% from 3, including a combined 3-of-28 stretch by Xavier and Seton Hall.
With McNeeley or not, UConn should shoot well and frustrate the Marquette offense enough to keep this closer than the spread.
