The Connecticut Huskies take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas. Tip-off is set for 5:00 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN.
Texas is favored by two points on the spread with its moneyline at -130. The total is set at 141 points.
Here’s my UConn vs. Texas predictions and college basketball picks for December 8, 2024.
UConn vs Texas Prediction
My Pick: Texas -2 (play to -3)
My UConn vs Texas best bet is on Texas -2 (play to -3), with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UConn vs. Texas Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -115 | 141 -112 / -108 | +110 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -105 | 141 -112 / -108 | -130 |
- UConn vs Texas spread: Texas -2 (-105), UConn +2 (-115)
- UConn vs Texas over/under: 141 (O -112, U -108)
- UConn vs Texas moneyline: UConn +110, Texas -130
- UConn vs Texas best bet: Texas -2 (play to -3)
Spread
My pick for this game is Texas to cover the spread.
Moneyline
If the moneyline drops to -115 or better, then just take the Texas moneyline.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over.
Given the Huskies' defensive woes and the Longhorns' offensive potential, it could bode well for the game finishing in the upper 140s.
My Pick: Texas -2 (play to -3)
Texas vs UConn Betting Trends
UConn vs Texas College Basketball Betting Preview
UConn Basketball
It must've been a real shock to UConn's system to win no games in the Maui Invitational — losing all three contests as 9.5-point favorites or more. Considering the Huskies have done nothing but win for the last 24 months, suddenly looking mortal is a stunner.
Should it have been a stunner, though?
The Huskies had Donovan Clingan waiting in the wings as Adama Sanogo's replacement two years ago, plus Tristen Newton returned. Clingan's replacements this year are a pair of foul-happy bigs, Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr.
The point guard situation is also pretty dire — Hassan Diarra is a solid floor general but he's not a point guard who can lead the Huskies to a title. Neither is Aidan Mahaney. Opposing teams relentlessly attack him on defense, making him tough to keep on the court if he can't hit shots.
In four games versus A-10 or better opponents, the Huskies have allowed 1.20 points per possession (PPP) or more in each game — three of which were losses — one was a win over Baylor this week. Even against Baylor, UConn let the Bears run up and down the court, collecting 1.20 PPP.
Another uninspiring stat about UConn's defense: They rank 94th in defensive efficiency, down from fourth last year.
Shockingly, UConn is getting crushed from deep, as opponents shoot a jarring 36% from three-point distance. Sometimes regression is due, but many of these looks are relatively clean, so I don't know how much will come.
I can't just disparage the name of the back-to-back champs in this entire section.
It's not all bad: UConn has the fifth-most efficient offense in college hoops, and Alex Karaban should return after a one-game hiatus.
In better news, UConn shoots 56% from two-point range and 36% from behind the arc. Although the Huskies don't live-and-die by the three, hitting at a strong clip doesn't hurt since nearly half of their shot attempts are from distance.
Texas Basketball
Texas is a brilliant case study on whether a team can succeed with a litany of players who were top-scoring options at previous schools. Not only can just one player be a go-to scoring option, but none of the transfers are Texas' "guy."
Tre Johnson is the guy for the Texas offense. He leads the Longhorns with 20 PPG on 47% shooting and 41% from three, but it's not always smooth sailing.
The five-star recruit began his college career with a 29-point game on 10-for-20 shooting against Ohio State, but we saw the downside when Johnson went 4-for-18 against Syracuse. The good thing? Texas managed to win despite Johnson's struggles.
How could Texas win a game with its best player shooting that poorly?
Well, it emphasizes locking in defensively, where the Longhorns boast America's 18th-most efficient unit. The only team who generated success versus this Longhorns defense was the Buckeyes — who shot 14-of-28 from three — compared to just 40% on two-pointers.
Owning the paint is the story for this Texas defense, as it holds opponents to the third-lowest field goal percentage on two-point field goals. A lot of credit should go to Arthur Kaluma and Kadin Shedrick, who have done a great job at containing inside drives.
This Texas defense is incredibly long. Every rotation player besides Jordan Pope is 6-foot-3 or taller, and it starts four players 6-foot-5 or taller. That length, combined with the Longhorns' sound defensive fundamentals, make for one of the most intimidating units in the country.
If I can nitpick here, the one drawback with Texas is shaky point guard play.
Last year, head coach Rodney Terry could rely on Tyrese Hunter and Max Abmas to create looks for others. This year, the scoring is much more on isolation and one-on-one opportunities, as the Longhorns have just three players averaging more than 2.0 assists.
Let's see if Texas can operate without taking too many bad shots against a reeling UConn defense.
UConn vs. Texas Betting Analysis
It's the first true road test for a Huskies team that hasn't proven they can win games away from Storrs.
For now, I have to fade UConn in a spot like this against a good Texas team with the line at one possession.
Let's see if UConn can hit a solid amount of threes. Otherwise, this feels like a spot where the Longhorns get comfortable and turn the game into a nasty, defensive game, which is a nightmare scenario for the back-to-back champs.
Pick: Texas -2 (play to -3)
