The UMass Minutemen take on the VCU Rams in Richmond, Virginia. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
VCU is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1800. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here are my UMass vs. VCU predictions and college basketball picks for February 19, 2025.
UMass vs VCU Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean VCU -16.5
My UMass vs VCU best bet is on the Rams spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
UMass vs VCU Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -112 | 148.5 -108o / -112u | +950 |
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -108 | 148.5 -108o / -112u | -1650 |
- UMASS vs VCU spread: VCU -16.5
- UMASS vs VCU over/under: 148.5 points
- UMASS vs VCU moneyline: VCU -1650, UMass +950
- UMASS vs VCU best bet: PASS | Lean VCU -17.5
My UMass vs VCU College Basketball Betting Preview
VCU is a wagon, sitting at 10-2 in A-10 play with wins over Saint Joe’s, St. Bonaventure and Dayton. Ryan Odom continues to work miracles at the mid-major level.
So, does UMass have a shot at staying within the monstrous 18-point spread?
It’s worth mentioning that the Minutemen are 7-2 ATS on the road this year, ranking in the top 40 nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric. They sometimes play their best ball on the road.
But this is a tough matchup.
The Rams are known for their press-happy, on-ball defense led by star point guard Max Shulga. But they’re known less for their surprisingly stout rim defense led by Luke Bamgboye (two blocks per game) and Chrisitan Fermin (1.4 blocks per game).
Ultimately, the Rams turn turnovers into fast-break transition buckets.
This is all a big problem for UMass, which struggles in press offense (.79 PPP, 17th percentile, per Synergy), ranks third-to-last in the A-10 in points off turnovers allowed (15, per CBB Analytics) and ranks last in fast-break points per game allowed (12, per CBB Analytics).
Additionally, I worry about the Minutemen’s 3-point defense against VCU’s five-out space-and-shoot attack.
UMass is an OK catch-and-shoot-denial squad, but conference opponents have shot under 30% from 3, and I think the Minutemen are due for a few opposing triples to fall — is there a better place for that to happen than at the Siegel Center?
Finally, the Rams have been obliterating teams on the offensive glass, leading the league in offensive rebounding rate at an absurd 41% (per KenPom).
At the same time, the Minutemen rank second-to-last in the league in second-chance points per game allowed (12, per CBB Analytics).
On the other end of the court, UMass lives in transition while running most dribble handoff-based stuff in the half-court. The Minutemen are ultimately rim-reliant and among the nation’s worst spacing and shooting squads.
On a per-possession basis, VCU is an elite dribble handoff (.61 PPP allowed, 95th percentile, per Synergy) and rim (.94 PPP allowed, 99th percentile, per Synergy) defense.
However, the Rams also rim-funnel and invite those dribble handoff actions, and they’re merely an average transition defense. That means the Minutemen could be comfortable running their stuff on Wednesday.
Ultimately, I’d lay the points with the Rams if I had to bet this game. But the Minutemen’s road prowess and some of the schematic matchup structures are keeping me away.
