The UNC Tar Heels take on the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament on Friday night. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 14, 2025.
UNC vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Under 155 or Better
My UNC vs Duke best bet is on the game total to go under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs Duke Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
- UNC vs Duke spread: Duke -7.5
- UNC vs Duke over/under: 156.5 points
- UNC vs Duke moneyline: Duke -310, UNC +250
- UNC vs Duke best bet: Under 155 or Better
Spread
It's really difficult to forecast this game given the status of Duke star Cooper Flagg, who injured his left ankle against Georgia Tech. He's a "long shot" to play, according to Duke head coach Jon Scheyer. I'll pass on the spread.
Moneyline
If anything, I'd lean Duke taking care of business without Flagg, but that's something I'd like to see before I believe it.
Over/Under
This is where there could be value, with the under looking enticing.
My Pick: Under 155 or Better
UNC vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Duke's hopes of an ACC title and a national championship took a major twist on Thursday. That twist occurred amidst the Blue Devils' victory over Georgia Tech as star freshman and National Player of the Year candidate Cooper Flagg literally twisted his left ankle.
Duke head coach Jon Scheyer was non-committal to any kind of timeline for Flagg, but did confirm that X-rays were taken and were negative. TV cameras and reporters saw Flagg being transported to the back via wheelchair during the game, though he returned to the bench and stood under his own power at times.
In even the most optimistic outcome, where this was a simple roll of the ankle that barely qualifies as a sprain, it would be hard to imagine Duke risking their star for an ACC Tournament semifinal game when they have much larger ambitions later this month.
If the outcome is worse, I weep for those of you holding Duke futures tickets and have serious doubts about this team's ability to make any kind of impact in March with Flagg sidelined.
Flagg has the second-highest usage rate in the ACC. He is the straw that stirs every drink for Duke's highly efficient offense.
Without him on the floor, his teammates will need to take on new roles. Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel and junior Tyrese Proctor become the focal points of the Blue Devils' attack, a massive stepdown from a generational playmaker like Flagg.
Any thought about what that could look like is pure projection, as both players have primarily played as secondary options with Flagg. Knueppel has played 1,266 non-garbage-time possessions with Flagg and just 242 without him. Proctor's splits are even more stark, with 1,215 possessions with Flagg and 188 without him.
Duke instead operates more like an NBA team, where a second unit led by Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster takes over when Flagg sits. Figuring all of this out with under 24 hours notice is daunting.
But I'm not quick to jump on Duke's opponent.
North Carolina was awful on Thursday in a win over Wake Forest, shooting 33.9% from the field. That includes 5-for-6 from deep by RJ Davis. Remove those attempts and UNC was just 14-for-50 from the field. The Heels' frontcourt was just 6-for-22 despite mostly shooting around the rim.
This UNC team has a tendency to play sloppy basketball, relying on head-scratching shot selection at times. Rather than assume some regression, if I'm going to wager on this game at all, it would be on the under.
Duke's offense is a major question mark, but its defense has routinely dominated against weak ACC opponents. If I'm confident in anything in this game, it's Duke's D showing up.
I'm not alone, as the total opened at 156.5 and is already dripping down to 154.5 at some books.
