The UNC Tar Heels take on the Ole Miss Rebels in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 4:05 p.m. ET on TNT.
UNC is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here are my UNC vs. Ole Miss predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
UNC vs Ole Miss Prediction
My Pick: UNC -1.5
My UNC vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Tar Heels spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Pick
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
- UNC vs Ole Miss spread: UNC -1.5
- UNC vs Ole Miss over/under: 155.5 points
- UNC vs Ole Miss moneyline: UNC -125, Ole Miss +105
- UNC vs Ole Miss best bet: UNC -1.5
My UNC vs Ole Miss NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Hubert Davis’ squad sure did an awesome job of shutting up detractors like myself. The Tar Heels joined the main bracket by beating San Diego State by nearly 40 in the First Four on Tuesday.
Perhaps I’m a prisoner of the moment, but I think I’m just a non-believer in Ole Miss. The Rebels are 81st in Bart Torvik’s defensive efficiency since February 1, and if you want to beat North Carolina, you have to take a page out of Duke’s playbook and lock the Heels down.
You can't have a track meet with them.
You can’t point to a single positive for the Ole Miss defense in the past six weeks — it ranks outside the top 300 in 2-point and 3-point field goal percentage, defensive rebounding rate and free throw rate.
Literally nothing has gone well for Chris Beard’s defense. That’s typically not the case for Beard, but his roster includes a pair of guards below 6-foot-1 and no bigs above 6-foot-9.
The way to beat North Carolina is by forcing inefficient one-on-one looks. The Heels had crisp ball-movement in the First Four, dropping 29 assists. Ole Miss ranks 315th nationally in allowing assisted field goals, as opponents record dimes on 57% of their makes versus the Rebels.
The Rebels feature six players who average between 10 and 14 points per game. The go-to option is point guard Sean Pedulla, but it’s important for wings Matthew Murrell and Dre Davis to play well. North Carolina is a bit smaller on the wings, so the two burly scorers could have a strong night.
Another concern for Ole Miss backers is shooting. The Rebels are shooting just 32% from deep in their past 12 games. UNC isn’t terrible at limiting teams from getting to line, ranking 137th in free throw rate in its past 14 games. That should weigh in the Heels' favor.
The Tar Heels' offense, which emphasizes a transition-scoring mindset, will feast versus Ole Miss.
Shooting is the key for North Carolina. The Tar Heels are hitting a dazzling 42% from downtown in their past 14 games.
RJ Davis will dictate if the Heels have a strong shooting game or not. He dropped 26 points with six 3s in the win over SDSU and scored 23 in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal win over Wake.
But in the semifinal versus Duke, Davis scored eight points on 4-of-10 shooting.
Every team needs their best player to play well, but I just can’t see North Carolina winning if Davis doesn’t play well.
North Carolina’s much-maligned interior has even played well as of late. Ven-Allen Lubin is the catalyst for the Heels' sudden resurgence on the inside. He’s scored 10+ points in nine straight, while shoring up the Heels' rebounding, leading to the 61st-best defensive rebounding rate since February 1.
This is the classic case of a team that isn’t playing well heading into the Big Dance against a team that's playing their best basketball of the year.
Plus, it’s not a shocker that most bets are coming in on UNC, as the public got to see it thrash a top-15 defense.
