The UNC Tar Heels take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the NCAA Tournament First Four. Tip-off is set for 9:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
UNC is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for March 18, 2025.
UNC vs San Diego State Odds
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- UNC vs San Diego State spread: UNC -4.5
- UNC vs San Diego State over/under: 142.5 points
- UNC vs San Diego State moneyline: UNC -200, San Diego State +165
- UNC vs San Diego State best bet: San Diego State +4.5 | Under 142.5
Our UNC vs San Diego State best bet is on the Aztecs spread and the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
UNC vs San Diego State NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
By: Ky McKeon
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee made a controversial move when it included North Carolina in the Field of 68 as the last team in.
The majority of bracketologists had the Tar Heels out due to their 1-12 mark against Quad 1 competition, but a top-five non-conference strength of schedule proved to be enough for the powers that be.
The Heels have been hot lately, losing to only Duke since February 10th, but their competition has been nothing to write home about.
San Diego State’s non-conference work carried it to a bid, specifically enormous neutral-floor wins over Houston and Creighton. The Aztecs have made two straight second-weekend-plus runs in the NCAA Tournament, but this will be Brian Dutcher’s first time coaching in Dayton.
The Tar Heels are transition-reliant, running in the open floor at an 85th percentile rate. They use a ton of isolation and ball screens in the half court, relying on RJ Davis and Elliot Cadeau to create off the bounce.
All of that action is action SDSU can shut down. The Aztecs rank sixth nationally in points per possession allowed in transition (Synergy) and have a ton of perimeter size and athleticism to defend isolation action and the pick-and-roll.
UNC isn’t a great outside shooting team – the Heels can make 3s, but they attempt them at just the 228th highest rate in the country.
SDSU will make UNC shoot – the Aztecs pack it in and defend the interior with tenacity. But because SDSU is so big and long on the perimeter, it ranks in the top 20 nationally in 3-point percentage allowed.
Few teams in the nation can both pack the paint and also close-out effectively on would-be shooters at elite levels.
The Heels will, of course, have the pure talent advantage. Davis was a preseason National Player of the Year favorite, Cadeau is a talented ball handler, Seth Trimble can be a No. 1 scoring option and Ian Jackson is a blue-chip recruit.
SDSU will need its lockdown defenders — like the versatile Miles Byrd — to be at their peak.
SDSU is the bigger, more physical team, and the Aztecs need to muck this game up and turn it into a war to win.
Insane interior defense leads the way. The Aztecs rank eighth nationally in 2-point field goal percentage, first in block rate, and 18th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. If UNC is cold from deep, SDSU can at least keep this game extremely low scoring.
Offense can be hard to come by for SDSU. Dutcher runs a ton of ball-screen action for point guard Nick Boyd and deploys his arsenal of versatile wings and forwards to get loose balls and offensive rebounds.
UNC has been awful defending the pick-and-roll this season; per Synergy, the Heels rank in the 20th percentile nationally in points per possession allowed to ball handlers coming off screens.
UNC’s smaller perimeter doesn’t force turnovers, meaning SDSU should at least be able to get off a shot or two (or three) on every possession. UNC’s lack of interior fortitude and rim protection doesn’t hurt either.
Finally, in the coaching battle department, I’ll go to war with Dutcher over Hubert Davis any day of the week. Both coaches have made a national title game in the past four years, but Dutcher has done it with far less talent.
SDSU plus the points is a bet on Tuesday. I have a lean to the under on the total as well.
Pick: San Diego State +4.5
By: Sean Koerner
This is an interesting pace battle, with UNC pushing tempo while San Diego State looks to slow it down.
UNC struggles to generate turnovers, so San Diego State should be able to bleed clock offensively. Plus, the Aztecs rank sixth in the country in transition defense, which could slow down UNC’s fast break scoring attack.
The return of Magoon Gwath is massive — San Diego State ranked 13th in defensive efficiency with him vs. 44th without him (via Bart Torvik splits). He’s an elite rim protector who will help limit UNC inside.
One key factor: UNC has faced one of the toughest free throw percentage schedule, with opponents shooting 75% at the line — a stat the Heels can’t control.
Meanwhile, San Diego State is one of the worst free throw shooting teams, which could help lower UNC’s points allowed.
I project this closer to 140 points, so I'm locking in the under 142.5.
Pick: Under 142.5 (Play to 140)
