UNLV vs Dayton Odds, Pick
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
Editor's Note: The game between UNLV and Dayton won't be played due to the tragic events on UNLV's campus.
Last Tuesday, UNLV built an 18-point lead against Akron and barely escaped with a 72-70 victory. With the win, the Runnin' Rebels improved to 3-3 on the season, and now they head across the country to battle the Dayton Flyers in Ohio.
Dayton is coming off a dominant 76-46 victory over Grambling on Saturday. With the win, Dayton improved to 6-2, but the Flyers also have victories over LSU, St. John's and SMU.
Last year, UNLV won the first ever meeting between these teams 60-52 in Las Vegas, but this year, the Flyers are eight-point favorites in the rematch.
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UNLV Runnin' Rebels
In the win over Akron, UNLV had four players score in double figures with guard Luis Rodriguez scoring a team-high 13 points. The Runnin' Rebels have a balanced scoring attack with four double-digit scorers, and Oklahoma State forward transfer Kalib Boone leads the way with 13.8 points per game on an efficient 69.6% from the field.
The Runnin' Rebels as a team are also thriving inside the arc as they are shooting 55.7% from the field on their 2-point attempts, which ranks 37th nationally. However, scoring on the interior will be a challenge against Dayton because the Flyers are holding opponents to 45.5% inside the arc. In particular, Boone against DaRon Holmes II will be an important and exciting matchup to monitor.
While Dayton packs the paint, it is 248th nationally in 3-point Accuracy Allowed. UNLV is an average 3-point shooting team making 33.1% of its attempts, but the Runnin' Rebels may knock down a few more behind the arc on Tuesday.
They may need to rely on some hot shooting because their defense has been poor so far this season at 215th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have been dreadful defending the long ball as opponents are making 41% of their 3-point attempts. UNLV ranks 353rd in 3-point Accuracy Allowed and 339rd in Effective Field Goal percentage defense.
Nonetheless, UNLV does keep opponents off of the foul line. It is averaging just 14 fouls per game and allowing 12 free-throw attempts per game, the second-fewest amount in the nation. However, the Rebels have been a bit unlucky as opponents have converted 75% of their free throws this season, and that should even out over the course of the season.
Dayton Flyers
Against Grambling, Nate Santos scored a career-high 26 points, and the Pitt transfer now needs just eight points to match his total output in 54 games with the Panthers. He is averaging 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game this season and leads the team in rebounds, but Holmes leads the team with 15.5 points per game.
Holmes' rebounds are down a bit this season, but he averaged 8.1 per game last season. However, he has expanded his offensive repertoire to the 3-point line this season and is attempting 1.6 threes per game this season. However, head coach Anthony Grant would prefer Santos shooting 3s.
Santos is a blistering 16-for-24 (.667) from beyond the arc this season and leads the country in 3-point percentage. He could have a field day from deep against the Runnin' Rebels. He is a big reason why the Flyers are shooting 39.2% on 3s and rank 23rd nationally in 3-point Accuracy thus far this season. However, guard Koby Brea has also been a knockdown shooter this season at 48.1% (25-for-52) from deep on twice the volume of Santos.
Dayton shares the ball well, averaging over 15 assists per game on over 23 field goals per game. Guard Kobe Elvis leads the team with 4.4 assists per game, and three players are averaging at least three dimes per game.
Dayton is 91st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but it is blocking over four shots per game. Holmes accounts for half of that total and is averaging 2.1 blocks per game for his career.
UNLV vs. Dayton
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Dayton plays at a slow pace, it is very capable on offense and can attack defenses in multiple ways. I love this matchup for Dayton against UNLV's defense because of the Flyers' advantage on the perimeter.
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The Runnin' Rebels are allowing 73.8 points per game, with most of the damage coming from beyond the arc. This is concerning for UNLV fans because Dayton can burn UNLV with a bevy of 3s with Santos and Brea while also exploiting the interior with Holmes. The junior center will also play a key role in limiting the Running Rebels around the rim as well.
Additionally, Dayton is 5-3 against the spread this season and 4-2 ATS as a favorite. UNLV is just 2-4 against the spread and 0-3 as an underdog this season. Kenpom projects the Flyers as a nine-point favorite, so we are getting a bit of value getting them at -8 on the spread here.
