UNLV vs Seton Hall Pick & Prediction
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -120 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 +100 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
If you like elite guard play, I have the perfect NIT quarterfinal game for you.
The UNLV Rebels — led by freshman sensation Dedan Thomas Jr. — will face Seton Hall and veteran guard Kadary Richmond.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels
UNLV is playing shorthanded, as starting forward Luis Rodriguez has missed the first two NIT games. But that hasn't slowed down Keylan Boone, who dropped 37 combined points across those games.
The Rebs' offense is operating like a well-oiled machine, scoring 1.17 PPP against Princeton and 1.24 against Boston College. That's super strong from the Rebels' 65th-ranked offense, according to KenPom. They already beat Princeton in Jadwin Gym and would need a win in South Orange, New Jersey, to stay alive.
On offense, look for Thomas to drive to the basket, using his quickness and savvy ball-handling to either finish or dish to the bigs, Kalib Boone and Rob Whaley Jr.
Kalib scored 16 points in the win over BC, and Whaley scored 22 against Princeton. The two bigs producing is huge since UNLV only shoots 34% from 3, compared to 52.2% from inside the arc. The Rebels' bread and butter is scoring inside, which is no different than the Pirates.
I'm eager to see how Thomas operates against the stout defense from the opposition's star, Richmond, who stands over four inches taller than Thomas. He can't just shoot over Richmond in the mid-range, and shaking him off with dribble won't be easy either.
UNLV's biggest matchup concern is defensive rebounding. It's caused problems this year, as the Rebels rank 298th in defensive rebounding percentage. That's an even bigger issue when factoring in Seton Hall's offensive philosophy of crashing the glass.
Seton Hall Pirates
Seton Hall narrowly escaped a first-round stunner — winning in overtime against Saint Joe's — and bounced back with a 14-point victory over North Texas to reach the quarterfinals.
The Pirates' stellar defense shined in the first two postseason games, holding Saint Joe's and North Texas to fewer than 1.00 PPP.
Shaheen Holloway is known for his defensive coaching chops, and this team fits his coaching style perfectly. The Pirates are an aggressive defensive team, forcing turnovers on 17% of possessions.
It's interesting how teams look to score against the Pirates, opting to shoot more 3s than 2s. Opponents shoot 3s on 42% of their field goal attempts. The sheer size and physical play from Seton Hall's defense makes shooting more of a play than driving, and it's often worked in Seton Hall's favor.
Meanwhile, it's not just Richmond who dictates the offensive attack. The Pirates' other two leading scoring threats — Dre Davis and Al-Amir Dawes — could surge for a 20-point outings with no sweat.
Dawes is a little different than the other two; he's a rhythm shooter who could knock down five or six in a game if he's feeling right.
Davis brings energy to every game. Even if he's not scoring, he's crashing the offensive glass (63 offensive boards this season). Seton Hall could use scoring from Davis, who averages 14.8 points this year.
Dawes is the only player you can rely on to hit shots from 3, so if UNLV plays a zone defense on some possessions, it wouldn't surprise me to see Dawes go off.
UNLV vs. Seton Hall
Betting Pick & Prediction
I love the home-court Pirates in this matchup because of the offensive rebounding I mentioned above, starting with Jaden Bediako and Davis' activity. They'll both look to catch UNLV sleeping and create extra possessions off missed shots.
Although Seton Hall's offense isn't strong, adding extra possessions from offensive rebounds helps compensate for poor shotmaking.
Secondly, how will UNLV slow down Seton Hall's driving attack? Richmond loves playing towards the basket, where he can dish to shooters or score from post-ups.
Nobody on UNLV's roster is a good matchup for Richmond, and the star should play like a star.
