The USC Trojans take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, IL. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Illinois is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here are my USC vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
USC vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: USC +14 or Better if Kasparas Jakucionis is Out
My USC vs Illinois best bet is on the Trojans spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
USC vs Illinois Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -112 | 154.5 -112 / -108 | +575 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -108 | 154.5 -112 / -108 | -850 |
- USC vs Illinois spread: Illinois -14
- USC vs Illinois over/under: 154.5 points
- USC vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -850, USC +575
- USC vs Illinois best bet: USC +14 or Better If Kasparas Jakucionis is Out
Spread
I'm (regrettably) backing the Trojans as long as Illini point guard Kasparas Jakucionis is ruled out, as I expect he might be.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: USC +14 or Better if Kasparas Jakucionis is Out
USC vs Illinois College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois is legitimately the Big Ten’s best team. Brad Underwood’s spread pick-and-roll offense is unstoppable. The Jakucionis-Tomislav Ivisic ball-screen actions are a machine.
Meanwhile, USC can’t stop the dribble. The Trojans' ball-screen coverage is amongst the worst in basketball, as they invite pick-and-roll creation and don’t do anything to stop it (23 pick-and-roll PPG allowed, 331st nationally).
So, Illinois could score at will here. The Illini have dropped at least 80 points in five consecutive games — all wins — cracking the 100-mark against Oregon and Chicago State and the 90-mark against Penn State. Why would that stop now?
Well, I’m worried about Jakucionis’ status. He missed the team's last game with a forearm injury and is questionable for Saturday’s matchup.
That said, Illinois destroyed Penn State’s physical, hard-hedging ball-screen coverage without him, scoring 37 points on 40 pick-and-rolls, suitable for a .93 PPP.
So, does USC have a prayer of keeping up?
The Trojans are still a significant work in progress in Eric Musselman’s first year, especially with an awkward roster fit (too many mid-major off-the-bounce downhill wing scorers, not enough shooting).
USC won’t get anything in the post against Illinois’ massive interior. Still, the Illini’s drop-coverage defense will invite on-ball mid-range creation through ball-screen, cutting and isolation actions, which is precisely what the Trojans want to do.
Additionally, I think Illinois’ defense is a tad overvalued, as I don’t expect opponents to keep shooting 42% from 2-point range and 28% from 3. Those numbers are simply too low.
But can USC ever get off the mat? The Trojans have one KenPom top-100 win this year over a broken Washington team, and they’re 0-5 in every other opportunity, averaging 62 points per game in those five losses (including a disgusting 36-point effort against Saint Mary’s).
If there was a time for USC to come out with its hair on fire, Saturday is it after back-to-back double-digit losses. For what it’s worth, the Trojans' win over Washington came in early December after back-to-back-to-back losses.
Meanwhile, Illinois could be looking ahead to a massive road opportunity against Indiana next Tuesday.
It’s not a bad sandwich spot for an Illini fade, especially off a near-40-point win, and if they’re again without their best player — maybe they'll rest Jakucionis until Tuesday, and the team will try and get in and out with a win instead of shooting for style points.
Regrettably, I have to take another shot with USC.
The Trojans must hit their middle-of-the-floor opportunities consistently, but I think they can do that against an overvalued defense.
The key to this handicap is Jakucionis’ status, as USC might have a better shot at staying in front of the dribble if the Illini are without their superstar ball-screen creator.
I have a sneaking suspicion Illinois will hold Jakucionis out until the Indiana game on Tuesday. So, I’ll throw some money behind USC +14 or better once that is announced.
