Utah State vs New Mexico Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
The Pit was rocking Saturday afternoon, and I expect a similar atmosphere Tuesday. The New Mexico Lobos are for real, and they are ready to show the world when the Utah State Aggies come to town.
The Mountain West is quietly becoming one of the better basketball conferences in the entire country, and this could be a massive game for either team's NCAA Tournament resume. I expect a high-scoring affair from both of these talented offenses.
The Aggies enter this game as a 4.5-point underdog despite entering the game with a 15-game winning streak.
Utah State Aggies
There are two areas of concern for the Aggies entering this game.
The first one is their shooting ability from deep. Utah State is shooting 30% from beyond the arc, which is bad news against an elite Lobos perimeter defense. Guard Ian Martinez is the one guy that can get hot for the Aggies from deep, and the pick-and-pop game between him and forward Isaac Johnson has been impressive.
With the Lobos being strong defensively on the perimeter, the Aggies will look to score inside more than usual. The problem is that New Mexico is a good defensive team all over the floor, so Utah State's typical elite interior scoring is not a strength in this matchup.
Secondly, I have questions about Utah State's ability to defend inside. The Lobos finally have a healthy starting lineup and their guards are lethal from the outside.
It could be a long night for the Aggies defensively, as their interior defense will be a big difference-maker. I would not be surprised to see Utah State playing catch-up all evening long.
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New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos are fully healthy and they have a great home-court advantage. Look out, Mountain West Conference.
Given this team only recently got fully healthy, its metrics are slightly misleading. It is important that the Lobos are healthy for this one since they are facing a tough Aggies perimeter defense. The Lobos enter this game 68th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but those numbers will increase as the season progresses.
Simply put, I trust the Lobos' offense over the Aggies. Even if they can't get it going from deep, they will destroy Utah State's interior defense.
I will give this backcourt a nickname before anybody else: The Triplets. Guards Jamal Mashburn Jr., Jaelen House and Donovan Dent might be the best offensive trio in the entire country. On Tuesday night, these three will announce their presence on a national stage.
Utah State vs. New Mexico
Betting Pick & Prediction
This line has shrunk since opening, but I am not afraid of the market steam. I have a ton of love for these Lobos, and I will rock with them once again.
The Aggies have been impressive on their 15-game winning streak, but you could argue they should have lost Saturday to UNLV. The officiating in that game was skeptical — at best.
I respect the Aggies, but the Lobos are the better team. The electric crowd at The Pit will carry them to victory.
