The Utah State Aggies take on the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here are my Utah State vs. New Mexico predictions and college basketball picks for February 16, 2025.
Utah State vs New Mexico Prediction
My Pick: Utah State +5.5
My Utah State vs New Mexico best bet is on the Aggies spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs New Mexico Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | +184 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
- Utah State vs New Mexico spread: New Mexico -5.5
- Utah State vs New Mexico over/under: 160.5 points
- Utah State vs New Mexico moneyline: New Mexico -225, Utah State +184
- Utah State vs New Mexico best bet: Utah State +5.5
Spread
I'm backing the Aggies to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Utah State +5.5
Utah State vs New Mexico College Basketball Betting Preview
The two best teams in the Mountain West meeting in a monstrous Sunday matchup is pure college basketball cinema.
The Lobos crushed the Aggies in the first matchup, winning by 19 in Logan. But Utah State was super unlucky in that game, shooting just 5-for-31 (16%) from 3.
Otherwise, I thought the Aggies played very well.
New Mexico's offense creates through the post with Nelly Junior Joseph or in transition and ball screens with Donovan Dent.
But Utah State is an elite transition (.93 PPP allowed, 89th percentile), post-up (.76 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile) and perimeter ball-screen coverage (.60 PPP allowed, 96th percentile) defense.
The Lobos scored relatively efficiently in the post and ball screens, but they were lifeless in transition (nine points on 16 possessions, .56 PPP).
I think the Aggies can make some key half-court defensive adjustments in the rematch.
Meanwhile, Utah State is more of a secondary-motion offense, running plenty of off-ball screening, cutting and handoff actions to generate open jumpers.
Typically, New Mexico struggles to defend secondary actions, especially against off-ball screens (1.03 PPP allowed, 23rd percentile) and cuts (1.25 PPP allowed, 26th percentile).
But the Lobos were bailed out because Utah State couldn’t make a shot. The Aggies even won the turnover battle by six, took six more shots and scored much more efficiently in transition (18 points on 13 possessions, 1.39 PPP).
With some more normal shooting splits, the Aggies could’ve competed in that game or won outright. ShotQuality graded the game as a 13-point analytically expected win for Utah State based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.
So, I’m banking on the shooting splits and results flipping in the rematch, especially when the schematic matchup favors Utah State.
