The Utah State Aggies take on the San Diego State Aztecs in San Diego, CA. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on FOX.
San Diego State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. The total is set at 144 points.
Here are my Utah State vs. San Diego State predictions and college basketball picks for December 28, 2024.
Utah State vs San Diego State Odds, Spread
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | +175 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 144 -110 / -110 | -210 |
- Utah State vs San Diego State spread: San Diego State -4
- Utah State vs San Diego State over/under: 144 points
- Utah State vs San Diego State moneyline: San Diego State -210, Utah State +175
- Utah State vs San Diego State best bet: Under 145 (Play to 142)
My Utah State vs San Diego State best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
My Utah State vs San Diego State NCAAB Betting Preview
Not to discredit Utah State's success thus far, but it's in for a rude awakening on Saturday. The Aggies are off to an 11-1 start, but their strength of schedule is 161st in the country.
The Aztecs are no joke and are the favorite to win the Mountain West right now.
The Aggies just picked up a nice victory on Sunday against Saint Mary’s, but last week, they lost at home to UC San Diego. That's a bit of a concern.
The Aggies will need to shoot better from deep (32%). Also, the Aztecs only allow their opponents to shoot 29% in that area.
The good news for the Aggies is the Aztecs allow a lot of attempts from deep.
I like the Aggies' ability to rebound the basketball, so they should win the battle of the boards.
The Aggies' offense is due for a bit of regression despite their poor 3-point shooting thus far. According to ShotQuality, the Aggies rank outside the top 200 in Rim-and-3 Rate.
Defensively, the Aggies are 50th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They do an excellent job of staying disciplined, and they do a good job of creating turnovers.
The Aztecs don't turn the ball over often, so it'll be key for the Aggies’ defense to remain consistent. They’ve been abused in the paint, allowing their opponents to shoot 53% from inside the 3-point line.
Their opponents only shoot 32% from deep, but they'll also be due for regression in that area, as they're outside the top 303 in point attempts allowed per game.
The Aggies like to run a high-tempo offense, but I think they'll struggle against the Aztecs' defense. The Aztecs like to slow and grind the game down, so the pace will be a factor.
I’m unsure if I could take the points with the Aggies on the road here, especially given that I don't know how good of a team they are given their strength of schedule.
In my Mountain West preseason preview, I thought San Diego State would have a tough year.
Well, as we enter the month of January, the Aztecs are the best team in the Mountain West. The Aztecs are 8-2, which generally wouldn’t be that impressive of a record, but it’s the fact that they faced a gauntlet of a schedule so far.
The Aztecs' strength of schedule is 20th in the country.
Nick Boyd has been excellent since transferring from FAU, as he's shooting 41% from 3-point land.
I also love the frontcourt that the Aztecs possess between Miles Byrd and Pharaoh Compton.
Despite their impressive start, I'm hesitant to back the Aztecs' offense. They rank 72nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they're shooting a ridiculous 36% from deep despite not taking a lot of 3-point attempts per game.
Although the Aggies are due for negative regression at defending the triple, I still don't trust that the Aztecs' offense is as good as advertised. They do a good job of protecting the basketball, but they don't get to the free throw line often.
Even when they do get to the free throw line, they’re shooting 70% from there.
Also, they struggle to score inside, shooting under 50% from inside the arc. The Aggies are prone defensively in that area, so it's a good opportunity for the Aztecs to get right.
Defensively, it's an entirely different story. The Aztecs are 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and opponents only shoot 42% from the field, which is good for sixth in the country. Given the fact that they've faced a gauntlet of a schedule so far, I’d say that’s pretty damn good.
They’re a struggling defensive rebounding team, but the Aztecs are excellent at defending the perimeter and down low. They're also the top team in the country in block percentage, so there won't be easy baskets for the Aggies' offense.
Even though I doubt their offense, the Aztecs will slow the game down enough that their defense will dominate and dictate the play.
As far as swallowing the points with them at home, I will stay away, even though that’s where I would lean.
Utah State vs. San Diego State Betting Analysis
I think both offenses are due for negative shooting regression.
I also love the spot for the Aztecs at home, as they can expose the Aggies. They have faced a much tougher strength of schedule thus far.
The Aztecs will dictate the game's pace, and their defense will be the best unit on the floor.
I think the market has peaked a bit too high on Aggies' offense, and I'm willing to bank on that and cash in on taking the under.
Pick: Under 145 (Play to 142)