The Utah State Aggies take on the UCLA Bruins in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 9:25 p.m. ET on TNT.
UCLA is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. UCLA predictions and college basketball picks for March 20, 2025.
Utah State vs UCLA Prediction
Pick: UCLA -5 (Play to -6.5)
My UCLA vs. Utah State best bet is on the Bruins spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah State vs UCLA Odds, Spread
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 144 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Utah State vs UCLA spread: UCLA -5.5, Utah State +5.5
- Utah State vs UCLA over/under: 144
- Utah State vs UCLA moneyline: UCLA -220, Utah State +180
Utah State vs UCLA NCAAB Betting Preview
One of the matchups I can't wait to see in the Round of 64 is the UCLA Bruins, who boast Sweet 16 upside, versus Utah State, which is hunting for consecutive years with an NCAA Tournament win.
The Aggies will toss out some different zone looks, and teams have absolutely dominated them. They pressure often before falling into the zone in the half court. That leads to a strong 20% turnover rate, but forcing turnovers is the only good thing the Aggies' defense does.
Utah State ranks 201st in defensive efficiency since February 1. You can search as much as you want, but nothing in the Aggies' defense profile looks good. Opponents shoot 53% from 2, 35% from 3 and the Aggies send opponents to the free throw line at a 46% rate.
Also, if the Aggies somehow get a stop, they allow offensive rebounds on 31% of those misses.
Jerrod Calhoun is known for his offensive coaching DNA. He's brought an elite unit to Logan, leading the Aggies to the 11th-best offensive efficiency since February 1. The good thing for Utah State is that it doesn't turn the ball over, which is pivotal to beating UCLA's defense.
The Bruins pressure to force turnovers (22% turnover rate), rather than just showing pressure to change the tempo. Meanwhile, UCLA's field goal defense is pedestrian, allowing opponents to shoot 35% from deep and 50.7% from 2.
Although the Bruins haven't faced many zone defenses this year, they scored 1.144 points per possession on spot-up jumpers against the zone. That's the primary source of shots against most zones, and UCLA shoots 35% from deep.
Another downside of playing zone versus the Bruins is rebounding. Most teams who play zone struggle on the glass, and Coach Calhoun's squad is no different. The Aggies sit 211th in defensive rebounding rate compared to UCLA, which collects offensive rebounds at a 32% rate.
The Aggies start with a small-ball approach, surrounding 6-foot-11 center Aubin Gateretse with four guards — three are 6-foot-3 or shorter and Dexter Akanno is 6-foot-5.
Playing four guards against UCLA's Kobe Johnson, Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey Jr. — who all stand 6-foot-6 or taller — will cause problems.
Dailey and Bilodeau are particularly tough to defend. Bilodeau is the Bruins' best player, as he's leading the Bruins with 13 points per game and is trailed by Dailey with 11 points. Both are shooting over 40% from deep on close to 100 attempts, so they should cook the Aggies' terrible zone.
I don't have any faith in Utah State here. Unless the Aggies explode for a crazy shooting night with guards Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev erupting, I can't see them covering.
I'll put my faith in Mick Cronin — along with his shooting bigs and solid guards — to cover the -5.5 spread.
Pick: UCLA -5 (Play to -6.5)
