The Utah Utes take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, TX. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here are my Utah vs. Baylor predictions and college basketball picks for December 31, 2024.
Utah vs Baylor Prediction
My Pick: Baylor -11 (Play to -12)
My Utah vs Baylor best bet is on the Bears spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Utah vs Baylor Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -108 | 152.5 -112o / -108u | +410 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -112 | 152.5 -112o / -108u | -550 |
- Utah vs Baylor spread: Baylor -11
- Utah vs Baylor over/under: 152.5 points
- Utah vs Baylor moneyline: Baylor -550, Utah +410
- Utah vs Baylor best bet: Baylor -11 (Play to -12)
Spread
With Baylor now fully healthy and Utah playing its first true road game, I am going to lay the points with the Bears at home.
Moneyline
I have no edge on the current moneyline splits.
Over/Under
Both offenses should be able to score in this one. However, neither team plays overly fast, and I expect the game to slow down as it is the conference opener for both teams. No play.
My Pick: Baylor -11 (Play to -12)
Utah vs Baylor College Basketball Betting Preview
Utah Basketball
Utah’s return to the Big 12 is somewhat of a rude awakening. A trip to Waco to take on Baylor awaits, where the Bears did not lose in regulation last season.
Of course, the Utes did little to prepare for this. They did not play a single true road game in the non-conference, only leaving the friendly confines of the Huntsman Center for two neutral site games in Mississippi and South Dakota. Not many teams make it to conference play / New Year’s Day without testing themselves in a true road environment.
Utah does have two enormous factors going for it. First and most obvious when you see the team get off the bus: the Utes are huge. Three players 6-10 or taller rotate at center, with three other bruising forwards also in the rotation. Craig Smith runs exclusively two-big lineups. That immense frontline, along with a soft schedule, has helped Utah rank in the top 30 nationally in both 2P% offense and 2P% defense so far this year. They also rank in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate (KenPom).
The size extends to the backcourt: the Utes’ two point guards are 6-3 Miro Little and 6-9 “Mongolian Mike” Sharavjamts. Notably, Little is likely searching for some measure of revenge in this game. A touted recruit when he committed to Baylor, he barely saw the floor with the Bears in 2023-24. After transferring to Utah, expect the Finnish guard to have a special focus in this one (player props, perhaps?).
The other obvious strength of this Utes team is their ball movement and shooting. Despite the size, Smith can still flood the court with shooters, led by lethal twins Gabe Madsen and Mason Madsen. Through 11 games, the wing snipers have already hit 40 and 37 triples, respectively. Add in a few jumpers from Sharavjamts and Hunter Erickson, and defenses end up in a bind on where to concentrate their efforts.
Where Utah suffers is in overall team quickness and athleticism. Smith’s roster construction clearly sacrificed those two elements somewhat for size and skill so quicker foes could win off the bounce.
Baylor Basketball
Stop me if you’ve heard this before about a recent Baylor team: the Bears are loaded in the backcourt, fueling a dynamite offensive attack that looks totally unstoppable for stretches. However, a leaky defense has kept Baylor out of the truly elite tier nationally, as the Bears’ best opponents have blitzed them with ruthless efficiency.
Sounds familiar, right? Scott Drew has found a consistent baseline since the elite 2021 national championship squad!
The offense is led by the perimeter group of Jeremy Roach, VJ Edgecombe, Rob Wright and Jayden Nunn. That is an overwhelming wealth of playmaking and shooting, allowing Drew to continually keep the pressure on opposing defenses. A finally healthy Langston Love is even starting to round into form, giving the Bears a true embarrassment of riches.
The insatiable rebound appetite of forward Norchad Omier has bolstered the Bears’ baseline. He tirelessly wreaks havoc on the offensive glass, and his finishing at the rim has been outstanding. With so much attention paid to Baylor’s guards, Omier has feasted around the bucket.
The defense, however, has struggled. In five games against top 50 competition, Baylor has allowed the following points per possession marks: 1.44, 1.03, 1.09, 1.26, 1.27. They simply cannot corral better foes, and given Utah’s size and shooting combination, that could be a problem on Tuesday.
Digging into some regression data offers some encouraging signs, at least. Baylor opponents have made 39.5% of their 3-pointers. Per Shot Quality, that number should be almost 5% lower, based on the caliber of shooter and the proximity of the defense on the shot. If opposing jump shooters ever come back down to Earth, Baylor’s defense could see a sneaky improvement.
Utah vs. Baylor Betting Analysis
Laying double-digits in a conference opener is a dicey proposition. It’s a “new season” of sorts for both teams, and Utah has no incentive to lose focus even if Baylor builds an early lead. That mindset is not conducive to blowouts.
However, with Utah not having played a true road game yet – and having lost both games outside of Salt Lake City – I think the spot concerns are neutralized.
Banking on 3-point shooting regression is not a smart strategy against Utah’s elite gunners. However, they are playing in a brand-new shooting background, and I believe in the underlying data that supports Baylor’s defense being better than it has shown thus far. The Bears’ athletic perimeter could also cause issues for Utah’s backcourt, which has yet to see a high-major foe that can pressure like Baylor can.
I do not have a crazy numerical edge on this game, as I only make it Baylor -12. But given the situational angle and Baylor’s fully healthy status, I like the Bears to make a statement in their Big 12 home opener. I would lay up to that -12 price that I made it.
