The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Kentucky is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -218. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here are my Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for February 19, 2025.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky -5.5 (Play to -7)
My Vanderbilt vs Kentucky best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Odds, Lines, Pick
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 161.5 -115 / -105 | +180 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 161.5 -115 / -105 | -218 |
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -4.5
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky over/under: 161.5 points
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -218, Vanderbilt +180
- Vanderbilt vs Kentucky best bet: Kentucky -5.5 (Play to -7)
My Vanderbilt vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
Vanderbilt Basketball
One of the country's most remarkable year-over-year turnarounds can be found in Nashville, TN. In Mark Byington’s first season in charge, the Commodores have already nearly doubled their win total from last year (17 to nine).
They're a heavy favorite to make the NCAA Tournament (-350, per FanDuel), marking the program’s first appearance since 2017.
Byington’s drastic rebuild of the program came from the ground up. Vandy’s top nine players are all newcomers, embedding into a totally revamped style compared to Jerry Stackhouse’s tenure. Byington’s approach emphasizes speed and mobility, using transition as a major weapon on offense.
Vandy also pressures defensively, extending to keep opposing ball-handlers off balance. As a result, the Commodores rank 10th in the country in turnover margin, lurking among luminaries like Houston and St. John’s.
The Commodores’ guards key the attack on both ends. On offense, they're led by fifth-year veterans AJ Hoggard, a tremendous downhill driver and playmaker, and Jason Edwards, a natural-born scorer.
Defensively, Chris Manon is one of the most disruptive players in the country, and backcourt cohorts Tyler Tanner and Grant Huffman are both highly instinctive ballhawks.
However, Vandy’s most underrated player is Devin McGlockton, an undersized forward whose willingness to log some minutes as a nominal center gives Byington tremendous lineup flexibility.
Jaylen Carey is an even more bruising option, and both he and McGlockton are outstanding per-minute rebounders.
The downside of the Commodores’ smaller frontcourt is that they're highly vulnerable in the paint. Vandy ranks last in the SEC in 2-point percentage defense during league play, a direct result of having no one taller than 6-foot-8 on the roster.
This flaw often gets glaringly exposed if opponents break through the Commodores’ pressure.
Kentucky Basketball
Mark Pope’s Wildcats make for an interesting comparison point to Vanderbilt. Like the Byington and the Commodores, Pope started from scratch this offseason, at one point having zero players on the roster due to the portal and professional departures.
Also, like Vandy, Kentucky has found immediate success in a new era.
Pope has already produced multiple elite offenses in his coaching career. His first Kentucky squad fits that bill, loaded with shooting and employing a system emphasizing off-ball movement and quick passing reads.
Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison key the offense from the center spot, as they're two highly capable distributors at the top of the key or in the post.
Wings Otega Oweh and Koby Brea fly around off screens, offering complementary slashing (Oweh) and pinpoint shooting (Brea) to keep defenses on their heels.
Versatile forwards Andrew Carr and Ansley Almonor are highly efficient weapons in their own right.
Kentucky’s defense, however, has left something to be desired. Despite solid individual pieces like Oweh and Williams, opponents have gashed the Cats’ conservative scheme all season. Kentucky ranks 348th nationally in defensive turnover rate, and foes simply get too comfortable against the Wildcats.
The other major issue for Kentucky right now is health. Two vital pieces — Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson — are dealing with nagging injuries that will likely keep them sidelined for this one.
Butler is the Wildcats’ best on-ball defender by a gargantuan margin while providing a steadying presence as a lead guard. Robinson is a deadeye perimeter marksman who might also be the Wildcats’ best one-on-one scorer.
Without that duo, Kentucky must rely more heavily on Brea and freshmen Travis Perry and Trent Noah. The rookies have shown major flashes but are clearly inferior options to the two injured fifth-year seniors.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Betting Analysis
Vandy won the first meeting in Nashville, narrowly knocking off the Wildcats 74-69 back on Jan. 25. Butler and Robinson both played for Kentucky in that one, but Carr missed the game with a back injury.
Unsurprisingly, the Commodores dominated the turnover department, forcing 17 UK miscues while coughing it up just five times themselves. That allowed Vandy to overcome getting crushed on the boards 43-30 and shooting a paltry 4-of-11 (36.4%) from the free throw line.
In theory, Kentucky’s ball-handling should improve at Rupp Arena, but with Butler and Robinson both out, the ball-handling duties will frequently fall to Perry and Oweh.
Perry, though a tough presence, still has the usual freshman point guard foibles, and Oweh is far from a natural ball-handler. The Commodores will take advantage.
The fight on the glass will continue to be one-sided, especially with Carr back. That can keep the shot volume battle somewhat even despite the likely turnover gap.
Thus, it may come down to jump shooting. Even without Robinson, Kentucky is still loaded in that department, especially with Noah emerging as a legitimate threat. Brea, Almonor and Perry can all knock down shots. Carr is a better perimeter shooter than he's shown so far this year.
Vandy is not bereft of shooting – Edwards and Tyler Nickel are major threats – but in Lexington, I trust Kentucky’s offense more.
Coupled with the revenge spot, I'm backing Kentucky up to -7. The Wildcats’ injuries and turnover issues are worrisome, but this line is too far toward Vandy.
